ICRA lowers India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.2% on oil surge amid West Asia crisis

New Delhi: India’s GDP is likely to grow at 6.2 per cent in FY27, down from the earlier estimate of 6.5 per cent amid elevated crude oil prices triggered by the West Asia crisis, according to rating agency ICRA.

For FY26, ICRA estimates GDP growth at 7.5 per cent, marginally lower than the National Statistical Office's (NSO) Second Advance Estimate (SAE) of 7.6 per cent for the fiscal.

“ICRA now assumes crude oil prices to average at USD 95/bbl in FY27, against our prior estimate of USD 85/bbl, given the ongoing stickiness in prices amid the stalemate in West Asia. Consequently, we have pared our baseline forecast for the FY27 GDP growth (at constant 2022-23 prices) to 6.2 per cent from the 6.5 per cent expected earlier,” ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said.

The rating agency also said GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to ease to a three-quarter low of 7 per cent from 7.8 per cent in Q3 of 2025-26.

A slower expansion across the industrial and services sectors is expected to have moderated GDP growth between these quarters, even as the performance of the agriculture sector is likely to have improved slightly.

“However, a slower rise in manufacturing volumes, contraction in exports, and nascent signs of margin pressure amid the West Asia fallout may have weighed on the industrial gross value added (GVA) growth performance in the quarter. Consequently, we expect the GDP growth to have slowed to a three-quarter low of 7 per cent in Q4 2025-26, below the NSO's implicit estimate of 7.3% for the quarter, while remaining quite robust," Nayar said.

Slowing global growth and shipping disruptions triggered by the West Asia conflict weighed on India's merchandise exports in the March quarter of 2025-26, which fell by 2.8 per cent on a YoY basis, after a modest 1.4 per cent rise in the December quarter.