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India to pull ahead of US in GDP by 2030

Last Updated 19 September 2018, 10:43 IST

The 10 major economies of Asia, including India, are expected to see robust growth and amount to over $28 trillion in real GDP terms on aggregate, more than the US by 2030, says a DBS report.

According to DBS, the Asia-10 economies are China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. By 2030, the Asia-10 economies will grow so robustly that they will, on aggregate, amount to over $28.35 trillion in real GDP (2010 constant dollars) terms, while for the United States will amount to $22.33 trillion.

“We expect Asia-10 to pull ahead of the US by 2030,” DBS said, but added that this neither is a sufficient nor a necessary condition to invest in Asia, as investing cannot be based on a single indicator, especially when it comes to a long-term horizon. According to the global financial services major, Asia has a bright economic future, however, all Asian economies face some common issues - climate change, rising inequality, worsening environment for trade, and technological disruption that can drag growth numbers.

“Several dynamics that have supported the economic development of the Asian economies in recent decades are weakening, and there are many changes in the international environment,” DBS said.

The report further said the demographic dividend that many Asian countries benefited from in the past may not be as valuable now. A young population creates a “challenge” in terms of generating jobs, in absence of which there will be high levels of unemployment, creating both an economic and social/political challenge, the report noted.

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(Published 22 July 2018, 15:17 IST)

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