Indian economy likely to grow at 7.4% in FY19: NCAER

Economic policy think-tank NCAER has retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 7.4% citing comfortable agricultural sector outlook and a marked improvement in the external sector.

According to the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) report, in 2018–19 the real agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) is envisaged to grow at 4.6%, real industry GVA at 5.1%, and real services GVA at 8.5%.

"Both the NCAER annual and quarterly models forecast that GVA will grow at 7% per annum in 2018–19 on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis. The annual model forecasts that GDP at market prices will grow at 7.4% for 2018–19 on a year-on-year basis, same as May 2018," NCAER's latest Quarterly Review of the Economy said.

The growth rates in exports and imports, in dollar terms, are estimated at 11.9% and 15.1% respectively.

The current account balance and central fiscal deficit, as percentages of GDP, are projected at 2% and 3.3% respectively.

According to the economic policy think tank,the trends for both rainfall and prices indicate comfortable agricultural sector outlook for the year as a whole.

Noting that there was also a marked improvement in the external sector in 2018–19, NCAER said that "the financial year 2017–18 witnessed a rise of 9.9% and 18.6%, respectively, in exports and imports, on a y-o-y basis".

"The upswing continued even in FY 2018–19, wherein the total exports grew at the rate of 18% and total imports surged at 15.1% on a year-on-year basis during the period April–May," it added.