<p class="title">India's economy is suffering its worst cyclical downturn for more than a decade, which is weighing heavily on global oil consumption, and until the economy improves, prices are unlikely to see a sustained increase.</p>.<p class="bodytext">If the monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in pushing the economy out of its current trough, faster growth would play an important role in rebalancing the oil market in 2020.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Between 2008 and 2018, India's oil consumption increased at an annual average rate of just over 5% or an extra 200,000 barrels per day each year ("Statistical Review of World Energy", BP, 2019).</p>.<p class="bodytext">The South Asian giant accounted for 15% of all the growth in petroleum consumption worldwide over the last decade. Only China was a more important source of incremental demand.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The health of India's economy is therefore crucial to the evolution of the production-consumption balance, and at the moment the economy is very sick.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Like most middle-income countries, measuring the size of India's economy and its growth rate, accurately and in real-time, presents formidable challenges.</p>.<p class="bodytext">But hard data on auto sales and electricity generation point to an economy currently experiencing a severe slowdown or outright recession (https://tmsnrt.rs/2shh0tC).</p>.<p class="bodytext">Passenger vehicle sales have been falling this year at the fastest rate for more than two decades, down by around 8% between September and November compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Plunging vehicles are both a symptom of economic stagnation and contribute directly to slower growth in demand for road fuels.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Electricity generation, another real-time proxy for economic growth, is also falling at the fastest rate for well over ten years, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Power consumption was down more than 7% in the three months between September and November compared with the same period a year earlier.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The slump has been so severe it has forced an aggressive policy response. The Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark repo rate five times this year by a total of 135 basis points.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The central government has also directed banks to increase lending and cut corporate taxes to revitalise business investment</p>
<p class="title">India's economy is suffering its worst cyclical downturn for more than a decade, which is weighing heavily on global oil consumption, and until the economy improves, prices are unlikely to see a sustained increase.</p>.<p class="bodytext">If the monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in pushing the economy out of its current trough, faster growth would play an important role in rebalancing the oil market in 2020.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Between 2008 and 2018, India's oil consumption increased at an annual average rate of just over 5% or an extra 200,000 barrels per day each year ("Statistical Review of World Energy", BP, 2019).</p>.<p class="bodytext">The South Asian giant accounted for 15% of all the growth in petroleum consumption worldwide over the last decade. Only China was a more important source of incremental demand.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The health of India's economy is therefore crucial to the evolution of the production-consumption balance, and at the moment the economy is very sick.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Like most middle-income countries, measuring the size of India's economy and its growth rate, accurately and in real-time, presents formidable challenges.</p>.<p class="bodytext">But hard data on auto sales and electricity generation point to an economy currently experiencing a severe slowdown or outright recession (https://tmsnrt.rs/2shh0tC).</p>.<p class="bodytext">Passenger vehicle sales have been falling this year at the fastest rate for more than two decades, down by around 8% between September and November compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Plunging vehicles are both a symptom of economic stagnation and contribute directly to slower growth in demand for road fuels.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Electricity generation, another real-time proxy for economic growth, is also falling at the fastest rate for well over ten years, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Power consumption was down more than 7% in the three months between September and November compared with the same period a year earlier.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The slump has been so severe it has forced an aggressive policy response. The Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark repo rate five times this year by a total of 135 basis points.</p>.<p class="bodytext">The central government has also directed banks to increase lending and cut corporate taxes to revitalise business investment</p>