India's trade surplus with US may cross USD 90 billion within a year after India-US deal: SBI Report

New Delhi [India]: India's trade surplus with the United States may cross USD 90 billion annually, supported by a sharp rise in exports and higher import potential, according to a report by SBI. As per the report, Indian exporters may increase their exports of the top 15 items to the US by around USD 97 billion in a year. Including the remaining items, the export potential may easily cross the USD 100 billion mark annually.

The report termed the decline in tariffs as a golden opportunity for Indian exporters to increase their market share in the US.

It stated, "India's Trade surplus with the US may thus cross USD 90 bn annually.......As per our preliminary estimates, Indian exporters may increase their exports of the top 15 items to the US by approx. USD 97 billion in a year."

According to the report, the expected surge in Indian exports, potentially crossing USD 100 billion annually post tariff cuts, combined with a structured rise in imports, could significantly widen India's trade surplus with the US. Given that the surplus was already USD 40.9 billion in FY25 and USD 26 billion in FY26 (April-December), the additional export push is likely to drive the surplus beyond USD 90 billion annually. The report said the net impact on GDP would be around 1.1 per cent. The report highlighted that while the US share in India's exports is around 20 per cent, its share in India's imports is only about 7.0 per cent. In services imports, the US has only a 15 per cent share, indicating that India remains a big potential market for the US. On the import side, the US has a yearly potential of more than USD 50 billion of exports to India (excluding services). India has agreed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods and a wide range of US food and agricultural products.

Subsequently, India intends to purchase USD 500 billion of US goods over the next five years. Imports could increase by USD 55 billion. In some commodities, the US share in India's imports is already between 20-40 per cent and is expected to increase further as tariffs are reduced.

For instance, in almonds, the US accounts for 90 per cent of India's total imports. India can save USD 100-150 million in foreign exchange reserves alone due to tariff reduction in these items. Additionally, savings in foreign exchange reserves due to zero or reduced import duty from the US is estimated at around USD 3.0 billion, and with import substitution, the savings may be higher.