<p>Indian equities are likely to trade cautiously with elevated volatility this week amid global uncertainties and sustained pressure from high energy prices. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to weigh on emerging markets, including India, keeping overall risk sentiment fragile. </p><p>Foreign investor activity remains a key drag, with FIIs recording massive outflows of Rs 81,263 crore in the past 13 sessions. Currency pressures have also intensified, with the Indian rupee breaching the 93 mark to hit a record low of Rs 93.49 against the US dollar, driven by strong dollar demand and broader global currency trends.</p>.<p>Key global cues to watch include flash manufacturing and services PMI readings from the US and UK, US crude inventory data and labour market indicators, which will offer insights into economic momentum and the future policy path. On the domestic front, India’s manufacturing, services and composite PMI data will be closely tracked for signs of economic activity.</p>.<p>Last week saw sharp volatility, with the Nifty witnessing wide swings before closing marginally lower by 0.16% at 23,115. Broader markets were mixed, as the Nifty Midcap100 rose 0.2%, while the Nifty Smallcap250 declined 0.4%, reflecting selective participation across segments. Sectorally, performance remained varied, with Nifty Auto (+2%) emerging as the top gainer, supported by resilient demand trends and improving rural sentiment, followed by Nifty Metal (+1.1%) on the back of firm global commodity prices. Nifty PSU Bank (+0.8%) and IT (+0.4%) also posted modest gains, aided by selective buying and currency support for export-oriented names. On the downside, Oil & Gas (-2.2%) and Defence (-2.4%) were among the key laggards amid profit booking and weakness in crude-linked sentiment, while FMCG (-1.9%), Realty (-1.9%) and Pharma (-1.3%) also declined.</p>.<p>Elevated crude oil prices are a key concern, with Brent briefly touching a high of $119 per barrel following attacks on energy infrastructure, amid tight supply conditions and geopolitical disruptions. For an import-dependent economy like India, this poses multiple challenges—fueling inflation, widening the current account deficit and exerting pressure on the currency.</p>.<p>The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, signalling a data-dependent stance in the face of steady growth and sticky inflation, thereby keeping global risk sentiment mixed. Indications of a slower pace of rate cuts have reinforced concerns around tighter financial conditions.</p>.<p>Going ahead, sectoral trends are expected to remain divergent. IT and energy stocks could see relative support, aided by a weaker rupee and elevated crude prices, while banks, auto and consumption sectors may face pressure amid margin concerns, demand moderation and global headwinds. Defence and power-related segments could also attract interest, supported by geopolitical developments and the early onset of summer, which is likely to drive higher electricity demand.</p>.<p>The pharmaceutical sector continues to show steady momentum, with the domestic market growing 12% YoY in February 2026, led by chronic therapies such as cardiac and anti-diabetic segments. Growth is supported by rising disease prevalence, therapy expansion and consistent demand for key formulations. Meanwhile, the general insurance sector reported 10% YoY growth, driven by strong traction in health insurance and improving penetration.</p>.<p>In the consumer segment, early summer conditions have boosted demand for room air conditioners, supported by rising temperatures and pent-up demand, while refrigerator demand is expected to pick up in the coming weeks. Seasonal trends and pricing adjustments linked to efficiency norms are likely to support revenue growth, although competitive intensity remains elevated.</p>.<p>Overall, markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term, with global cues, crude oil movements and foreign fund flows driving sentiment.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited)</em></p>
<p>Indian equities are likely to trade cautiously with elevated volatility this week amid global uncertainties and sustained pressure from high energy prices. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to weigh on emerging markets, including India, keeping overall risk sentiment fragile. </p><p>Foreign investor activity remains a key drag, with FIIs recording massive outflows of Rs 81,263 crore in the past 13 sessions. Currency pressures have also intensified, with the Indian rupee breaching the 93 mark to hit a record low of Rs 93.49 against the US dollar, driven by strong dollar demand and broader global currency trends.</p>.<p>Key global cues to watch include flash manufacturing and services PMI readings from the US and UK, US crude inventory data and labour market indicators, which will offer insights into economic momentum and the future policy path. On the domestic front, India’s manufacturing, services and composite PMI data will be closely tracked for signs of economic activity.</p>.<p>Last week saw sharp volatility, with the Nifty witnessing wide swings before closing marginally lower by 0.16% at 23,115. Broader markets were mixed, as the Nifty Midcap100 rose 0.2%, while the Nifty Smallcap250 declined 0.4%, reflecting selective participation across segments. Sectorally, performance remained varied, with Nifty Auto (+2%) emerging as the top gainer, supported by resilient demand trends and improving rural sentiment, followed by Nifty Metal (+1.1%) on the back of firm global commodity prices. Nifty PSU Bank (+0.8%) and IT (+0.4%) also posted modest gains, aided by selective buying and currency support for export-oriented names. On the downside, Oil & Gas (-2.2%) and Defence (-2.4%) were among the key laggards amid profit booking and weakness in crude-linked sentiment, while FMCG (-1.9%), Realty (-1.9%) and Pharma (-1.3%) also declined.</p>.<p>Elevated crude oil prices are a key concern, with Brent briefly touching a high of $119 per barrel following attacks on energy infrastructure, amid tight supply conditions and geopolitical disruptions. For an import-dependent economy like India, this poses multiple challenges—fueling inflation, widening the current account deficit and exerting pressure on the currency.</p>.<p>The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, signalling a data-dependent stance in the face of steady growth and sticky inflation, thereby keeping global risk sentiment mixed. Indications of a slower pace of rate cuts have reinforced concerns around tighter financial conditions.</p>.<p>Going ahead, sectoral trends are expected to remain divergent. IT and energy stocks could see relative support, aided by a weaker rupee and elevated crude prices, while banks, auto and consumption sectors may face pressure amid margin concerns, demand moderation and global headwinds. Defence and power-related segments could also attract interest, supported by geopolitical developments and the early onset of summer, which is likely to drive higher electricity demand.</p>.<p>The pharmaceutical sector continues to show steady momentum, with the domestic market growing 12% YoY in February 2026, led by chronic therapies such as cardiac and anti-diabetic segments. Growth is supported by rising disease prevalence, therapy expansion and consistent demand for key formulations. Meanwhile, the general insurance sector reported 10% YoY growth, driven by strong traction in health insurance and improving penetration.</p>.<p>In the consumer segment, early summer conditions have boosted demand for room air conditioners, supported by rising temperatures and pent-up demand, while refrigerator demand is expected to pick up in the coming weeks. Seasonal trends and pricing adjustments linked to efficiency norms are likely to support revenue growth, although competitive intensity remains elevated.</p>.<p>Overall, markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term, with global cues, crude oil movements and foreign fund flows driving sentiment.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited)</em></p>