Geopolitical developments, earnings to drive markets in holiday-shortened week: Analysts

Trading activity of foreign investors, who were sustained buyers in the Indian market last week, and global trends would also guide movement in the market, analysts said.

New Delhi: Geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan, quarterly earnings and macro data will be the key drivers of stock markets in the holiday-shortened week, say analysts.

Trading activity of foreign investors, who were sustained buyers in the Indian market last week, and global trends would also guide movement in the market, they said.

Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for 'Maharashtra Day'.

Further updates related to tariffs will also be watched by investors, experts noted.

Stock markets witnessed profit-taking in the last two sessions due to increased geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan following the death of 26 people in a terror attack on tourists at Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir.

"The upcoming holiday-shortened week also marks the beginning of a new month, making monthly auto sales data a key area of focus for market participants. On the macroeconomic front, investors will closely track the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data and the HSBC manufacturing PMI data.

"Meanwhile, geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan will remain on the radar. On the corporate earnings front, several prominent companies—including BPCL, IOC, Bajaj Finance, TVS Motor, and UltraTech Cement—are set to release their quarterly results. Globally, updates related to tariffs and trade will also be watched closely," Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

Last week, the BSE benchmark gauge climbed 659.33 points or 0.83 per cent, and the NSE Nifty went up by 187.7 points or 0.78 per cent despite profit-taking in the last two sessions.

On Friday, the 30-share BSE barometer Sensex tanked 588.90 points or 0.74 per cent to settle at 79,212.53. The NSE Nifty dropped 207.35 points or 0.86 per cent to 24,039.35.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said, "Geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan could add volatility to the Indian market over the next few days. Meanwhile, stock/sector specific action would continue on the back of ongoing Q4 earnings announcements. Key results this week include those from largecaps like Ultratech Cement, Bajaj Finance, Trent, Ambuja Cements amongst others." Meanwhile, Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 2.4 per cent rise in its March quarter net profit as store rationalisation in retail business and improved margins in telecom helped offset weakness in mainstay oil and petrochemicals business and higher finance cost.

Consolidated net profit of Rs 19,407 crore, or Rs 14.34 per share, in January-March - the fourth quarter of April 2024 to March 2025 fiscal (FY25) - was higher than Rs 18,951 crore, or Rs 14 a share, in the same period a year back, the company said in a statement.

"The week from April 28 to May 2, 2025, is set to bring another series of crucial economic releases that could impact global market dynamics and investor sentiment. In India, attention will be on the Industrial Production (YoY) data for March, scheduled for release on April 28, which will offer insights into the strength of the country's manufacturing and industrial sectors," according to Bajaj Broking Research.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, said, "There is a distinct trend reversal in FII strategy in India. During the last eight days FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) were sustained buyers in the Indian market." An interesting point in this reversal of FII strategy is that it has happened at a time of heightened India-Pak tensions following the Pahalgam terror attacks, he noted.