Rupee rises 10 paise to 92.41/US dollar; faces risks from rising global tensions

Mumbai: The rupee appreciated 10 paise to 92.41 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, even as the USD/INR pair faces risks from rising global tensions, especially the US-Iran conflict.

Forex traders said the rupee is likely to see high volatility intra-day as the deadline for RBI's instructions to banks to curb their overnight positions to $100 million closes today.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.58 against the US dollar, then gained ground to touch 92.41 against the US dollar in initial trade, registering a gain of 10 paise over its previous close.

On Thursday, the rupee settled with a marginal gain of 3 paise at 92.51 against the US dollar.

"An estimated 80–85 per cent of these positions have already been unwound, which means the bulk of this supportive flow is now behind us. In simple terms, the cushion that held the rupee steady is beginning to thin, and this is where the story starts to shift," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Pabari further noted that looking ahead, the picture for the rupee appears to be changing. "With most of the NOP-related support now fading and global uncertainties still elevated, the scope for further strength seems limited. USD/INR is likely to find a base in the 92.20–92.50 zone, with a gradual move higher towards 93.50–94.00 levels," he said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was higher by 0.07 per cent at 98.69 as the safe-haven demand has come down after the ceasefire, but as the ceasefire is fragile, the US dollar is getting bids at lower levels.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 0.51 per cent at $96.44 per barrel in futures trade, as the ongoing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz opening is keeping the oil trade well bid.

Pabari further noted that just as domestic support begins to fade, the global backdrop is turning uneasy again. "The World Bank has flagged that India's growth for FY27, expected at 6.6 per cent, faces risks from rising global tensions, especially the Iran conflict," he said.

According to Pabari, India continues to have strong buffers in the form of forex reserves and a stable banking system, but pressure points are slowly beginning to build.

On the domestic equity market front, the stock markets witnessed a rebound in early trade. The 30-share Sensex jumped 630.08 points to 77,261.73, while the Nifty climbed 203.6 points to 23,978.70.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth Rs 1,711.19 crore on Thursday, according to exchange data.