The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday said that the ongoing accelerated reform initiatives like GST and continuing political stability will push the economic growth scale to 7.3% in terms of GVA in the current fiscal year.
The Financial Stability Report (FSR) 2017 bases its optimism to the lower fiscal deficit at 3.2% for this year, down from 3.5% in 2016-17, increasing public capex and support to poorer households, small businesses and the rural sector, to oil the economy. “Going forward, reforms in FDI and real estate sector, implementation of GST, and revival in external demand are likely to contribute to a better growth outlook. GVA growth is expected to be higher at 7.3% in 2017-18,” the FSR said.
On inflation, it paints a rosy picture and projects CPI inflation to be in the range of 2-3.5% in the first half of the year and 3.5-4.5% in the second half.
Retail inflation, excluding food and fuel that remained sticky during H2 of FY17 at around 4.9%, dipped to 4.3% in April and 4.2% in May 2017, largely reflecting the impact of decline in global crude oil prices on transport and communication and moderate price pressures in services.
While noting that the fiscal conditions of the Centre is on the mend, it expressedconcerns on that of the states.
“While the Centre’s commitment to returning to rule based fiscal discipline is commendable, there are a few issues that need attention. One is the deterioration in the states’ fiscal conditions and the other is increased leverage of public sector undertakings.
“In the case of states, there is an increasing tendency to borrow outside the budget through parastatals as these are non-transparent in the sense that they do not add to outstanding debt even though their servicing burden falls on the budget,” the report warned.
Apex bank warns of more NPA pain
The RBI has warned that asset quality of banks continued to remain weak with gross non-performing loans rising to 9.6% in the year to March 2017, and may rise to 10.2% by next March, reports PTI from Mumbai.
Gross non-performing assets stood at 9.2% in September 2016. The net non-performing advances (NNPA) ratio marginally increased to 5.5% in March 2017, from 5.4% in September 2016, the RBI said in its FSR released here.
The stressed advances ratio declined from 12.3% to 12% due to fall in restructured standard advances, the report added.
According to a macro-stress test for credit risks, banks gross NPAs may rise to 10.2%.