<p>Indian equities are expected to remain volatile this truncated week with only three trading sessions. Market sentiment remains sensitive to the mixed signals from the ongoing West Asia conflict. On one hand, the US has extended the deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, indicating a possible diplomatic window and raising hopes of negotiations, while on the other hand, continued strikes by both sides is keeping risk elevated. </p><p>Brent crude, at around $110 per barrel, continues to keep inflationary pressures in focus. Currency markets also remain under pressure, with the Indian rupee hitting a record low of around Rs 94.78 against the US dollar last week and currently trading near Rs 94.70. The weakness was further driven by persistent FII outflows (Rs 1.07 lakh crore over the past 17 sessions), weak global cues and fading hopes of a near-term resolution to the conflict, resulting in broad-based selling.</p>.<p>Key global events this week include US retail sales, manufacturing PMI data and commentary from Federal Reserve officials, which will provide insights into global growth and policy direction. On the domestic front, investors will track March GST collections and auto sales data for cues on consumption trends and economic activity. With the earnings cycle approaching, quarterly business updates from sectors such as Banks, FMCG, retail and NBFCs will also be closely monitored for demand trends and margin outlook.</p>.<p>Last week was marked by heightened volatility, with markets witnessing sharp swings, as the Nifty50 closed 0.8% lower at 22,820. Broader markets also witnessed mild weakness, as the Nifty Midcap100 fell 0.7% and the Nifty Smallcap250 declined 0.7%, reflecting selective and cautious participation across segments. Sectorally, performance remained mixed, with Nifty IT (+3.4%) emerging as the top gainer, supported by a weaker rupee and selective buying in export-oriented names, followed by Nifty Pharma (+2.1%) on defensive positioning and steady earnings visibility. On the downside, Nifty India Defence (-4.8%) was the worst performer amid profit booking after recent outperformance, while financial services indices declined 2–2.3% on continued FII selling and margin concerns. FMCG (-0.9%), Oil & Gas (-1.3%) and Auto (-0.6%) also edged lower, reflecting demand concerns and pressure from elevated input costs.</p>.<p>In the healthcare space, the recent expiry of Semaglutide’s patent in India marks a key inflection point, opening up opportunities for domestic pharmaceutical players. The market is transitioning from an innovator-led to a highly competitive, generic-driven landscape, with multiple companies already launching branded generics. Demand is expected to expand sharply over the next 2–3 years, supported by a large metabolic disease burden and improved affordability. Rising awareness around obesity treatment could also support demand for patented alternatives such as Tirzepatide, shaping the competitive dynamics within the segment.</p>.<p>The capex cycle continues to be supported by a mix of public spending, with states playing a larger role as uncertainties persist. Within this, there is a gradual shift in allocation, with defence and power attracting higher government spending, even as roads and railways moderate from earlier levels. High-frequency indicators suggest that activity remains stable. Private investment is also improving gradually in select sectors. The sustainability of this cycle will depend both on global stability and domestic policy execution.</p>.<p><span class="italic"><em>(The writer is Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited)</em></span></p>
<p>Indian equities are expected to remain volatile this truncated week with only three trading sessions. Market sentiment remains sensitive to the mixed signals from the ongoing West Asia conflict. On one hand, the US has extended the deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, indicating a possible diplomatic window and raising hopes of negotiations, while on the other hand, continued strikes by both sides is keeping risk elevated. </p><p>Brent crude, at around $110 per barrel, continues to keep inflationary pressures in focus. Currency markets also remain under pressure, with the Indian rupee hitting a record low of around Rs 94.78 against the US dollar last week and currently trading near Rs 94.70. The weakness was further driven by persistent FII outflows (Rs 1.07 lakh crore over the past 17 sessions), weak global cues and fading hopes of a near-term resolution to the conflict, resulting in broad-based selling.</p>.<p>Key global events this week include US retail sales, manufacturing PMI data and commentary from Federal Reserve officials, which will provide insights into global growth and policy direction. On the domestic front, investors will track March GST collections and auto sales data for cues on consumption trends and economic activity. With the earnings cycle approaching, quarterly business updates from sectors such as Banks, FMCG, retail and NBFCs will also be closely monitored for demand trends and margin outlook.</p>.<p>Last week was marked by heightened volatility, with markets witnessing sharp swings, as the Nifty50 closed 0.8% lower at 22,820. Broader markets also witnessed mild weakness, as the Nifty Midcap100 fell 0.7% and the Nifty Smallcap250 declined 0.7%, reflecting selective and cautious participation across segments. Sectorally, performance remained mixed, with Nifty IT (+3.4%) emerging as the top gainer, supported by a weaker rupee and selective buying in export-oriented names, followed by Nifty Pharma (+2.1%) on defensive positioning and steady earnings visibility. On the downside, Nifty India Defence (-4.8%) was the worst performer amid profit booking after recent outperformance, while financial services indices declined 2–2.3% on continued FII selling and margin concerns. FMCG (-0.9%), Oil & Gas (-1.3%) and Auto (-0.6%) also edged lower, reflecting demand concerns and pressure from elevated input costs.</p>.<p>In the healthcare space, the recent expiry of Semaglutide’s patent in India marks a key inflection point, opening up opportunities for domestic pharmaceutical players. The market is transitioning from an innovator-led to a highly competitive, generic-driven landscape, with multiple companies already launching branded generics. Demand is expected to expand sharply over the next 2–3 years, supported by a large metabolic disease burden and improved affordability. Rising awareness around obesity treatment could also support demand for patented alternatives such as Tirzepatide, shaping the competitive dynamics within the segment.</p>.<p>The capex cycle continues to be supported by a mix of public spending, with states playing a larger role as uncertainties persist. Within this, there is a gradual shift in allocation, with defence and power attracting higher government spending, even as roads and railways moderate from earlier levels. High-frequency indicators suggest that activity remains stable. Private investment is also improving gradually in select sectors. The sustainability of this cycle will depend both on global stability and domestic policy execution.</p>.<p><span class="italic"><em>(The writer is Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited)</em></span></p>