West Asia crisis, earnings, crude oil prices key drivers for market movement this week: Analysts

New Delhi: The geopolitical situation in West Asia, particularly developments around the Strait of Hormuz, Q4 earnings from corporates and crude oil prices are the major factors to drive sentiments in the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said.

Stock markets would remain closed on Friday for Maharashtra Day.

"Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain highly news-driven and volatile, with key focus on developments in US-Iran negotiations, trends in crude oil prices, and broader global cues. Stability or a decline in oil prices could help ease macro concerns and support risk sentiment, while any escalation or prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz may trigger renewed volatility and profit booking," Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said.

The ongoing Q4 earnings season is expected to act as a key catalyst for stock-specific price action, with market participants closely tracking reported numbers, forward guidance, and sectoral outlooks to reassess earnings visibility and valuation comfort across segments, he added.

The standoff in the Strait of Hormuz has kept crude oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns.

The US Fed interest rate decision would also be keenly tracked by investors.

Hariprasad K, Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said, "The continued escalation in West Asia, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, and the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations have introduced a significant event risk premium into global markets. This uncertainty is directly feeding into crude oil prices, with Brent hovering near USD 107 per barrel.

"For India, this remains the single most critical macro variable, as elevated oil prices not only pressure inflation and the rupee but also weigh on corporate profitability across sectors."

From a corporate standpoint, the week is heavy on earnings, which will drive stock-specific action, he said.

Reliance Industries Limited on Friday reported a 12.5 per cent decline in March-quarter net profit, as the global energy crisis weighed on its core oil-to-chemicals business, offsetting gains in its consumer-facing telecom and retail segments.

"Domestically, March 2026 Industrial Production (IIP) data releases on April 28, while foreign exchange reserves come on May 1. Globally, the US Federal Reserve policy decision on April 29, along with US Q1 GDP advance estimate and ISM Manufacturing PMI will set the tone," Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.

However, the biggest macro swing factor remains the geopolitical situation in West Asia, particularly developments around the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran tensions, which continue to drive crude oil price volatility and influence inflation and margin concerns, he added.

Key results include UltraTech Cement, Coal India, Varun Beverages on April 27, Maruti Suzuki on April 28, Bajaj Finance and Adani Power on April 29, and a packed Thursday featuring Hindustan Unilever, Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises, and Bajaj Finserv, Meena said.

Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex tanked 1,829.33 points or 2.33 per cent, and the NSE Nifty dropped 455.6 points, or 1.87 per cent.

"Global developments continued to dominate market direction, with ongoing uncertainty around the West Asia crisis and concerns over supply disruptions keeping crude oil prices elevated," Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.