WPI inflation jumps to 11-month high of 2.13% in February

The annual wholesale inflation rose to an 11-month high of 2.13 per cent in February, led by an uptick in prices of food and manufactured products, official data showed on Monday.

This is the fourth consecutive month of increase in inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). The WPI inflation stood at 0.96 per cent in December 2025, and it rose to 1.81 per cent in January. It stood at 2.45 per cent in February, last year.

Wholesale food inflation jumped to 2.19 per cent in February, from 1.55 per cent the previous month. Inflation in primary articles — which include agricultural commodities and minerals — rose to 3.27 per cent in February, up from 2.21 per cent in January, and 0.21 per in December, data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed.

“Positive rate of inflation in February 2026 is primarily due to increase in prices of other manufacturing, manufacture of basic metals, non-food articles, food articles and textiles etc,” the ministry said.

Core inflation, excluding food and energy, jumped to a 40-month high of 3.3 per cent in February 2026. This was largely due to higher inflation in textiles, tobacco, electrical equipment, and other manufacturing.

Crude petroleum inflation continued to decline year-on-year since September 2024. On a month-on-month basis, however, the fuel and power index rose 1.17 per cent.

According to analysts, inflationary pressure is likely to rise further in March due to the West Asia conflict that has pushed oil prices higher.

“Looking ahead, elevated energy prices are likely to exert upward pressure on WPI inflation as input costs rise,” said Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings.

The impact of elevated energy prices is expected to be more pronounced on WPI compared with CPI, given the higher weight of petroleum, natural gas, and mineral oil in the WPI basket (10.4 per cent), relative to the CPI basket (4.8 per cent). In addition to energy price risks, the increased probability of an El Nino weather event in FY27 could adversely affect food inflation, Sinha added.

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) Chief Economist Devendra Pant said the WPI inflation is likely to rise to 3.7 per cent in March. Ind-Ra expects the low base and US-Iran war to keep wholesale inflation higher. Wholesale inflation during March-November 2025 averaged 0.2 per cent. “This coupled with a sharp price increase in gas, crude oil, and crude derivatives will keep wholesale inflation elevated,” he said.