JOIN USStabilisation of Bengaluru's Covid cases sparks 'peak' hope
With the number of daily Covid-19 cases having stabilised over the course of this week, there is guarded optimism that Bengaluru's outbreak has plateaued. Experts, however, cautioned that a few more days are required to determine if the peak has happened.
From January 18, Bengaluru Urban has been recording an average of 24,000 cases per day, but since January 22, the average number of daily cases has been about 1,500 less than the three days before. On Tuesday, the city reported 19,105 cases.
Dr Thrilok Chandra, Special Commissioner (Health), Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP), acknowledged that the cases have stabilised but said that more time is needed to determine if the city’s record single-day case numbers of 30,540 on January 20 represents the genuine peak of the third wave.
"We will need an additional three to four days to determine if the outbreak in the city has peaked. There are certain new factors which now need to be taken into consideration, including a revised lowered daily testing target of 65,000 in BBMP and the lifting of weekend curfew, which could increase case numbers," he said.
With the city having a current Rt (effective reproduction number) of 2.3, Dr M K Sudarshan, chairperson of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), noted that we are still accruing infections. "Therefore, the caseload is continuing and this suggests we are not yet at the exit point," he said.
One contentious issue is the declining levels of testing. As per the revised testing targets issued on January 24, the state's new daily testing target is 1,75,000, out of which 90,000 are supposed to be conducted in Bengaluru Urban. Some 70,000 of the statewide tests are supposed to be Rapid Antigen Tests. Earlier, the state was consistently maintaining a daily testing rate of about two lakh. The state’s RT-PCR testing capacity is 2,02,050 per day, as per the document.
The reduced testing is pulling down case numbers, as evidenced by the rising test positivity rate on days when testing is low. However, Dr Sudarshan said the TAC’s recommendation to reduce testing is in line with the revised testing guidelines from the ICMR, which has backed the testing of only symptomatic individuals.
Despite the testing reduction, Dr C N Manjunath of the State Covid-19 Task Force and nodal officer for testing pointed out that Karnataka is doing some of the highest quantum of daily testing per day in the country. "Most of the positives in this third wave are asymptomatics. Some 30-35% are mildly symptomatic but difficulties are being encountered in getting many symptomatics to test. Even if we wanted to increase testing, there is a resistance among the public,” he said.
He added that if all symptomatics in the general population were tested, then case numbers could be four to five times higher than they are now. "The silver lining of this third wave is that we are reaching the peak fast and will also likely exit the wave fast," he said.
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