Study shows Bengaluru will expand 58% by 2025

Bengaluru’s urban cover will increase to 1,323 sq km or 58% by 2025, a study of the pattern of land use change has shown.

This would be nearly double the spread of 727.88 sq km (31.75%) recorded in 2017, the study revealed further, while urging immediate steps to plan the city’s future.

Chandan M C, an assistant professor at the National Institute of Engineering, presented his studies conducted with Bharat Aithal, an assistant professor at IIT-Kharagpur, based on the SLEUTH model, a simulation model that considers various parameters of historical land use and land cover changes.

The researchers studied the changes in 741 km of the BBMP area and an additional 10 km buffer zone in Bengaluru. They used slope, land use, restrictions, urban sprawl, road networks, and hill shades to create a growth scenario for the total area.

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“In the business-as-usual scenario, 57.72% of the total area will have urban cover by 2025. Our tool also provides ways to regulate the growth by increasing the restrictions as defined in the master plan to ensure sustainability,” Chandan said.

The predicted urban cover for 2025 (1,323 sq km) is already higher than the 1,314 sq km identified as the Bengaluru Local Planning Area for which the Bangalore Development Authority (BDA) plans to revise the Master Plan 2041.

Chandan said authorities must work closely in order to keep pace with urban growth. “Cities are growing rapidly and infrastructure planning must consider future growth scenarios. There is no space for agencies like the BDA and the BBMP to operate in silos if Bengaluru’s growth has to be sustainable,” he added.

He said the Spatial Web Based Analysis of Urban Transition (SWAUT) offers an open platform that allows authorities and the public to evaluate the city’s growth scenario.

Earlier, people depended on special software to understand the results. Now, anyone can go to swaut.co.in and enter information about land use, changes in built-up areas, and roads to receive scientific data and maps showing the city’s growth.

The site has different growth scenarios for Chandigarh and Hyderabad based on different levels of control overgrowth.

“It will go live soon, letting people assess the future of their cities,” he said.