After Iraq, Arabs wary of Western action in Libya: analysts

Anti-government protests broke out against Libyan leader Moamer Gaddafi's 41-year rule in mid-February and quickly escalated into armed conflict.

The patchwork Libyan opposition now controls swathes of eastern and western Libya including the key eastern city of Benghazi and some oil installations, while Gaddafi remains firmly in control of the capital Tripoli.

The possibility of a Western no-fly zone to prevent Gaddafi launching air raids on his people, as well as other types of military intervention, have been raised.

"The Arabs have a special sensitivity when it comes to military intervention because of the Iraqi experience," said Ibrahim Sharqieh, the deputy director of the Brookings Doha Center, referring to the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and subsequent occupation.
"The Iraqi experience was managed poorly and has resulted in the deaths of too many people," he said.

Tens of thousands of people have been killed in violence in Iraq since ruler Saddam Hussein was toppled in 2003.

The Arab League said Wednesday it would consider backing a no-fly zone over Libya to end the crackdown on anti-regime rebels, but ruled out supporting any direct foreign military intervention.

"The Arab League fears the vagueness of the terms of the military intervention," Sharqieh said.

And Libyan opposition members "fear the incompetence of the West. Those people have failed in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and they can fail again," said analyst and journalist Jamil Mroue.

Tens of thousands of US and allied troops have been bogged down fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan since 2001.

"The Libyans fear the crumbling of the revolution into a civil war and then into Islamism," Mroue said. "Local people have seen the impact of intervention in many places, and they are very protective of their ownership of the process, of their sovereignty."
Mustafa Alani, an analyst at the Gulf Research Center, said it was premature to talk about military intervention.

"It is too early," Alani said. "Arab countries believe that it is premature to talk about military operations."

"The regime could fall. The countdown has started. And an intervention would only complicate things" by being counterproductive, he said.

"Kadhafi could survive," Alani said, while extremists step up attacks on Western interests. "And who wants a jihadist state in Libya? Do we want to see this scenario in Libya?"

Before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, several Western countries maintained no-fly zones over the north and south of the country with the professed aim of protecting civilians from Saddam, but during which Iraqi air defences were also destroyed.

But "the no-fly zone in Iraq was justified by a human disaster. It was imposed by the scope of human tragedy. We have not seen that yet in Libya; we don't have a justification yet," Alani said.

"We won't have a solution for weeks, we are heading for the status quo. It is not clear for how long but I don't see and end game in the coming weeks," said Sharqieh.
"What we need is an Arab successful diplomatic intervention."