While the ICDS survey predicts a marginal edge for the LDF in a tight finish, the C-fore survey predicts the opposition Congress-led UDF scraping through with 72 to 82 seats out of the 140. The CNN-IBN –The Week – ICDS survey as well as the C-fore Asianet polls have concurred on a 37- 38 per cent popularity for Achuthanandan among their sample while Oommen Chandy’s popularity dipped by about six per cent in five years according to one survey.
The results reiterate what was widely seen during the campaign as a VS factor threatening to upset the UDF applecart which appeared to have a smooth run till six months ago. They show that the huge crowds that thronged the 87-year-old chief minister’s public meetings were not hired as the UDF claimed but genuinely expressing their appreciation for his crusades.
However, what also apparently seemed to be doing wonders for the LDF is the perceived good governance that the Achuthanandan government managed to put up in the last five years.
The government’s good actions were apparently eclipsed by the infighting in the CPM and accentuated by often exaggerated reports in a predominantly left-bashing media. There are still many sceptics of the theory that the LDF would return to power. One has to remember that the results of the elections to Lok Sabha in 2009 and to local bodies held seven months ago virtually shook the foundations of the LDF and the CPM.
In fact, a few imponderables need to be addressed to believe that the LDF would buck the trend of rival fronts alternating between power every five years as CPM leader Sitaram Yechury put it.
How much ground has the LDF covered in just seven months to retain power? Have the scams and corruption raging at national level played a key role even in an assembly election in Kerala? Has the crucial undecided voter gone with the LDF? The answers will be known only on Friday.
