GDP growth of 8% is unlikely, says Plan panel

“I don’t think so...We never felt that this year was going to be a big growth year,” Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said when asked if India could achieve over 8 per cent GDP growth during 2011-12.

India’s economic growth rate moderated to 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of the 2011-12 compared to 8.8 per cent the same period last fiscal. This was the lowest growth in the last six quarters.

The Planning Commission has earlier pegged the GDP growth for 2011-12 at 8-8.3 per cent.
The government has projected a growth rate of 8.5 per cent, while the Reserve Bank of India came out more conservative estimate of 8 per cent.

The economy expanded by 8.5 per cent in 2010-11.

Ahluwalia said what is more important than achieving 8 per cent growth is “how we get out of the slowdown (and move to) higher growth path”.

On the positive side, the Planning Commission Deputy Chief said that the situation could improve with a pick up in the growth in the remaining part of the fiscal.

In the recent full Planning Commission meeting headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the panel has decided to aim for 9 per cent annual average economic growth in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17).

The Commission had scaled down the annual average GDP growth target in the current Plan from 9 per cent to 8.2 per cent last year in view of global economic downturn.