<p>Speculation is rife in Parliament about a possible “gesture” from the Trinamool Congress and DMK to abstain from voting in case the adjournment motion is agreed to by the government. However, just this “gesture” will not be enough.<br /><br />The UPA enjoys the support of 261 members in the House, which is 11 votes short of the majority mark of 272. They include Congress (206 MPs), Trinamool Congress (18), DMK (18), Nationalist Congress Party (9) and other smaller parties (10). This means that the UPA will have to depend on other parties such as the SP (22) or BSP (21) which have until recently supported the UPA.<br /><br />If the Trinamool Congress and DMK abstain from voting, then the total strength in the House falls to 507. The majority mark then will be 254 but the UPA strength will reduce to 225. In this scenario, the UPA will have no other option other than seek the support of the SP and BSP, which looks rather bleak now, considering the ensuing UP elections.<br /><br /> A defeat in an adjournment motion may not result in the resignation of the government. However, no government worth its salt will invite such a scenario. Thus, the Congress-led UPA is caught in such a pathetic situation that it is neither in a position to continue the logjam in Parliament, for fear of public criticism, nor go for normal functioning by way of allowing an adjournment motion, as demanded by the Opposition.<br /><br />Clearly, the highly controversial decision to allow 51 per cent foreign direct investment in retail has thus become a hot potato that the ruling coalition is just not in a position to handle.<br /><br />The scenario is similar to the Congress party's stand when it fully backed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s decision to go ahead with the civil nuclear agreement with the US in July 2008 that led him to seek a confidence vote, which he won, thanks to the SP and BSP. The Congress may not venture into such a gambit now.<br /><br />The forthcoming Uttar Pradesh elections have forced the two Uttar Pradesh parties— the SP and BSP—not to ally with the Congress although they have not publicly taken a stand in Parliament in this regard.<br /><br />With effective floor management and political vision lacking, the UPA is desperately trying to bail out of the situation.<br /><br /></p>
<p>Speculation is rife in Parliament about a possible “gesture” from the Trinamool Congress and DMK to abstain from voting in case the adjournment motion is agreed to by the government. However, just this “gesture” will not be enough.<br /><br />The UPA enjoys the support of 261 members in the House, which is 11 votes short of the majority mark of 272. They include Congress (206 MPs), Trinamool Congress (18), DMK (18), Nationalist Congress Party (9) and other smaller parties (10). This means that the UPA will have to depend on other parties such as the SP (22) or BSP (21) which have until recently supported the UPA.<br /><br />If the Trinamool Congress and DMK abstain from voting, then the total strength in the House falls to 507. The majority mark then will be 254 but the UPA strength will reduce to 225. In this scenario, the UPA will have no other option other than seek the support of the SP and BSP, which looks rather bleak now, considering the ensuing UP elections.<br /><br /> A defeat in an adjournment motion may not result in the resignation of the government. However, no government worth its salt will invite such a scenario. Thus, the Congress-led UPA is caught in such a pathetic situation that it is neither in a position to continue the logjam in Parliament, for fear of public criticism, nor go for normal functioning by way of allowing an adjournment motion, as demanded by the Opposition.<br /><br />Clearly, the highly controversial decision to allow 51 per cent foreign direct investment in retail has thus become a hot potato that the ruling coalition is just not in a position to handle.<br /><br />The scenario is similar to the Congress party's stand when it fully backed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s decision to go ahead with the civil nuclear agreement with the US in July 2008 that led him to seek a confidence vote, which he won, thanks to the SP and BSP. The Congress may not venture into such a gambit now.<br /><br />The forthcoming Uttar Pradesh elections have forced the two Uttar Pradesh parties— the SP and BSP—not to ally with the Congress although they have not publicly taken a stand in Parliament in this regard.<br /><br />With effective floor management and political vision lacking, the UPA is desperately trying to bail out of the situation.<br /><br /></p>
