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The rocket fiasco

It is likely that a purge takes place with people being blamed for disgracing the leader Kim Jong-un for the rocket failure.
Last Updated 16 April 2012, 18:18 IST

North Korea defied warnings from the international community and launched a rocket last Friday. The Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite was fired from the Sohae satellite launching station in Tongchang-ri at 7.38 am but failed to reach orbit. The failure to launch the rocket comes as an embarrassment for the communist regime, which was seeking to reinforce the legitimacy of the new leader, 28-year-old Kim Jong-un, who took over from his father Kim Jong-il in December 2011. North Korea insisted that the aim of the launch was to mark the 100th anniversary of the birth of the founder of the nation Kim Il-sung, by launching a civilian satellite. But it is suspected that the launch was to test banned long-range missile technology.   

Though the rocket suffered a catastrophic structural failure about a minute after launch and plummeted into the Yellow Sea, scattering debris, it threatened to cause a further deterioration in the relationship between the reclusive state and its neighbour. The failure demonstrated that North Korea has not mastered the technology that they need to control multi-stage rockets – a key capability if the North is to threaten the US with intercontinental ballistic missiles. 

Japan and South Korea, the two countries likely to be most affected, as well as the global community considered North Korea’s ‘satellite’ launch a disguised missile test. Though the rocket ultimately did not pose a threat to any part of either Japan’s or South Korea’s territories, both countries’ state-of-the-art-missile defence systems kept on alert were not called upon to intercept any debris. Japan did not take any chance and had put its radar systems to closely monitor the situation. In view of the failure, neither ground-based Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles deployed around Okinawa prefecture nor Standard Missile-3 interceptors aboard maritime self-defence forces destroyers in the East China Sea were activated. 

The UN Security Council ‘deplored’ the failed bid to launch a long-range rocket. The Group of Eight foreign ministers issued an emergency statement after their annual summit in Washington, condemning the North’s act and urged it to refrain from further provocations. In a statement issued by the G-8, it attacked the launch as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions. The foreign ministers of the G-8 raised the possibility of action by the United Nations. 

Japan was slow to issue a response and the Japanese people were not happy about it. In contrast, the US and South Korea issued official announcements swiftly after blastoff. It was a typical Japanese bungling as there is too much obsession to confirm data from the US warning system and further verification. 

Bureaucratic misfires

Chief cabinet secretary Osamu Fujimura probably learnt some lesson from Japan’s reactions to North Korea’s previous rocket launch in 2009 that stemmed from bureaucratic misfires, thereby sending false alarms that prompted widespread panic.

Therefore, the government decided to adopt a double-checking policy this time. Even the defence ministry justified delayed response on the ground that “necessary issues needed to be taken care of”. Though Fujimura termed North Korea’s act as ‘a grave act of provocation’ and lodged a complaint through diplomatic routes, it did not want to impose additional sanctions unilaterally without discussing with the international community. 

Japan has urged China and Russia, allies of North Korea, to support whatever effort is made at the UN Security Council. Not only the possibility of the resumption of the 6-party talks on denuclearisation of North Korea appear bleak, the chances of Japan holding direct talks with the hermit state over the abduction issue are now even slimmer. China, North Korea’s closest ally, called for calm in the Korean peninsula. Foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said that the maintenance of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and in northeastern Asia is a common responsibility of, and in the best interests of, all sides. 

The failed missile launch could trigger a major internal dispute and political instability in North Korea. The last time North Korea launched a missile, in April 2009, it conducted a nuclear test one month later. Pyongyang may follow the same pattern this time. In February, there were some signs of hope when North Korea agreed to suspend uranium enrichment and nuclear and long-range missile tests in exchange for 240,000 tons of food aid from the US. Pyongyang has broken this trust. And, as the US has decided not to send food aid following the missile launch, Pyongyang would see this as a break in promise. Pyongyang will have no choice but to strengthen its defensive capabilities by conducting a nuclear experiment. 

It is extremely likely that Pyongyang either launches another missile or conducts a nuclear test after a severe power struggle takes place among the various factions. This is because the regime is made up of various groups ranging from moderates to militaristic hardliners. It is likely that a large-scale purge takes place with people being blamed for disgracing the leader Kim Jong-un. One could recall that when North Korea failed at currency denomination, many people were purged and this time it could be much severe. In the myth-filled world of the Kim dynasty, how the young leader reacts to the big humiliation is anybody’s guess and how the regime’s guiding principle of juche, or self-reliance, in defiance of the world is taken to its logical conclusion would remain one of many unknowns. 

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(Published 16 April 2012, 18:18 IST)

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