From left to right, intrigue in French race

The 1st round confirmed Sarkozy as the most unpopular president in the history of the Fifth Republic

The strong showing by the Left and anger on the political extremes seemed to reflect a desire for change in France after 17 years of centrist, conservative presidents.

And it could continue an anti-incumbency trend that began with the economic crisis in Western Europe, where centre-right governments dominate from Britain to Spain to Germany.

It may also represent the first stirrings of a challenge to the German-dominated narrative of the euro crisis, which holds that public debt and runaway spending are the main culprits and that austerity must precede growth.

Over the weekend, the Dutch government was left tottering after failing to gain a majority in support of austerity measures, and demonstrators in the Czech Republic turned out in the greatest numbers since 1989 to protest a tax increase and budget cuts.

The French vote “is a reaction against austerity, and austerity is you,” Hollande’s campaign manager, Pierre Moscovici, said to the leader of Sarkozy’s party, Jean-François Copé. But the vote was also about an electorate that has grown increasingly disenchanted with politics and the political class.

Marie-Claude Noël, 72, of Amiens in northern France, said she had voted for Sarkozy but by default, “because politics is a nest of vipers. The situation is so catastrophic that whoever wins it won’t make much difference,” she said. “The French want change but only on the condition that it doesn’t change anything for them.”

Hollande finished with 28.5 per cent of the ballots cast and Sarkozy with 27.1 per cent, according to figures released by the Interior Ministry after the last polls closed. They were followed by Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front with 18.2 per cent, Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the Left Front party with 11.1 per cent, the centrist François Bayrou with 9.1 per cent and five other candidates with minimal support.

While Sarkozy’s total was only a percentage point or two short of Hollande’s, the view of most experts has been that unless  Sarkozy took the first round, he would have a hard time winning the runoff. The strong showing by Ms. Le Pen gave some heart Sunday night to Sarkozy’s supporters, since the two share similar themes about immigration, radical Islam, and law and order.

But a number of Le Pen voters have said they will abstain or vote against Sarkozy in the second round. “This is an election that will weigh on the future of Europe,” Hollande, 57, said after voting. “That’s why many people are watching us. They’re wondering not so much what the winner’s name will be, but especially what policies will follow.”
Hollande said that in addition to increasing employment and helping the poor, he wanted “to reorient Europe on the path of growth and employment.”

The French love a protest vote and the electoral system is devised to indulge them. On Sunday, we are told, they voted with their hearts and in two weeks’ time they will vote with their heads. But why do so many of their hearts apparently belong to Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front?

The first-round of voting confirmed Nicolas Sarkozy as the most unpopular president in the history of the Fifth Republic but that does not rule out a comeback on May 6 when he faces François Hollande, the Socialist front-runner.

Only surprise

Can he do it? The odds are against it. To succeed, he would have to capture most of the nearly 20 per cent of votes that went on Sunday to Ms Le Pen — the only surprise of the election (and even then, polls a few months ago had her at that level, only The Establishment — the ‘elites’ as the French are fond of saying — didn’t believe she could pull such a historic tally.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far left Front de Gauche who placed fourth, urged his supporters to back Hollande in the second round within minutes of exit polls being announced. They should have one goal, he said: “To beat Sarkozy.”

Tellingly, Mélenchon did not actually mention Hollande by name. Then, again, neither did Hollande when he went to vote earlier in the day, saying that the whole world was watching this election. Not so much to know the name of the winner, but to know what his policies would be.

Sarkozy’s greatest luck, many observers say, may be his opponent. While Hollande came in first in the first round, he did not come in first by a lot. Indeed, it was Ms Le Pen’s supporters who seemed more euphoric — and less worried — chanting “Victory! Victory!

Victory!” That Hollande did not rack up more votes against an incumbent pronounced dead repeatedly, even on occasion by himself, was not the best news going into the second round.

In fact, Sarkozy’s supporters were telling anyone who would listen Sunday that the rightist parties’ (combined) near-majority meant that the message of a ‘strong France’ was resonating with this electorate and would help Sarkozy over the next two weeks.
Guillaume Peltier, a politician from Sarkozy’s party and a former member of the National Front youth organisation, told the French daily Le Monde, “More than ever, the French want a strong France, a strong right, a strong president.”

Imagine the US presidential campaign compressed into two weeks, with ambitions just as huge, allegations just as biting that the opponent is too weak and fails to grasp the country’s ‘exceptionalism,’ but with sound bites that are a paragraph long.

But expect this theme to be repeated ad nauseum, perhaps literally: “The fact that the French people want to preserve their way of life is the key message of this election,” Sarkozy said in his speech Sunday night.

Still, Sarkozy cannot automatically count on the votes of National Front supporters to take him over the finishing line. They are a much more amorphous bunch. They are France’s grumpy party: they don’t like Europe, they don’t like bankers, they don’t like immigrants. Inheritors of the anti-intellectual, ‘shopkeeper party’ Poujadistes of the 1950’s.

The president attempted to ape the policies of the National Front in the final weeks of his campaign, and it did him no good at all. That raises the question whether he will move even further to the right in the next two weeks in an attempt to win them over. And, if so, would it work?

France is not about to return to the National Front vision of a nation of peasants, fishermen and small shopkeepers (mostly white) any more than it is going to join Mélenchon on the barricades. But nearly one-in-five French voters nevertheless took the trouble to turn out on Sunday to vote for Ms Le Pen.

French voters frightened themselves in 2002, when their first-round protest vote let Jean-Marie Le Pen through to the run-off. (Jacques Chirac went on to win the presidency).

On Sunday they appeared not to have learned their lesson. Perhaps they should have recalled the words of the late Pierre Poujade, founder of the anti-tax, anti-elite, small shopkeeper party of the 1950s. Having mellowed by 2002, he said he would prefer to break his own leg than see Le Pen elected.