BJP's fate: No end to speculation

Till now there is no meeting point between CM Yeddyurappa and the Bellary ministers. In case the CM takes a bold step, then one action expected from the CM is to sack three ministers - Karunakara Reddy, Janardhana Reddy and Sriramulu. Where would such bold step leave the CM?

If sources are to be believed, then the many MLAs who are holed up in a resort in Hyderabad resort  will become jittery and lose confidence to continue their association with the rebel group. If that happens, the three ministers would be isolated or will be in the company of a handlful of MLAs.

As a splinter group of the BJP the rebel group may meet the governor and withdraw their support to the Yeddyurapa-led government. In such a situation the governor will ask the CM to go for a floor test. He may also give eight-days’ time for the leader of the Assembly to prove his majority.

As per the anti-defection law if an MLA quits a party or forms a group consisting less two-third of the total number of MLAs of the party, then the member/s lose membership. Fear of the provisions of the anti-defection law itself is sufficient for the CM to keep the rebel group on tenterhook.

In case of the floor test, the BJP will issue whip to all its MLAs to support Yeddyurappa, in case the high command stands by him. The party MLAs normally hesitate to disobey the whip as such an act would force them lose membership in the Assembly.

Floor test

As of now the BJP has 117 MLAs in its support. The governor directs for a floor test only if a splinter group withdraws the support to Yeddyurappa. During the run-up to the floor test, political scenario may change.  According to speculations, the Reddys may be left with only a dozen MLAs.

If and only if all those vote against Yeddyurappa, dishonouring the party whip, the CM’s position will be in doldrums. But the CM will sail through the turbulent waves even if the rebel group decides to abstain from voting. As per the rule even if the CM gets one vote more in his favour than the opposition, he will continue to be the CM. A party requires 113 MLAs only while forming the government.

If a dozen MLAs of the rebel group abstains from voting the Yeddyurappa is still has chances of winning the test. Assuming 12 out of 122 MLAs (including five independents) abstain from voting, even then the BJP will have 110 MLAs, which the Congress-JD(S) combine cannot meet. The combined strength of the opposition is only 100.

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