Kalyan Singh: Mulayam's nemesis or saviour?

Many believe that the pathetic performance in the just concluded elections by the SP — which had bagged 35 seats in the 2004 general elections to 19 this time — was because of desertions by the Muslims — the party’s core votebank along with the Yadavs.

The desertion by the Muslims was attributed to Mulayam’s proximity to Kalyan Singh during whose regime the Babri Masjid had been demolished in Ayodhya on Dec 6, 1992.

Political analysts and even several senior SP leaders questioned the rationale behind joining hands with Kalyan Singh as they felt that it would cost Mulayam dear in the polls.

Yet Mulayam went ahead thinking that Kalyan would be able to bring with him the votes of his castemen — the Lodhs — and thus help the SP in the central and western parts of the state but the results are there for everyone to see.

The SP received a severed drubbing at the polls and not only its seats tally, but even its vote share declined substantially.

A close scrutiny of the poll results, however, points to a different scenario. It clearly shows that Kalyan Singh, in fact, proved to be Mulayam’s saviour. But for Kalyan’s help, the SP would have faced a far more severe drubbing.

The Lodh votes came in handy to several SP nominees at many places and coupled with the Yadav votes, they helped them scrape through despite desertion by the Muslims in closely contested seats.

The Lodh votes helped the SP at Budaon, Bulandshahar, Etawah, Rampur, Kannauj, Ferozabad, Jalaun and some other seats. “Without Lodh votes, the party’s tally could have been around 15 or 16,” admitted a newly elected MP of the party.

Lodh support

Mulayam’s nephew Dharmendra Yadav, who emerged victorious by around 30,000 votes in Budaon seat, could not have possibly won without the Lodh support. BSP’s D P Yadav had made inroads in his Yadav votebank and Congress’ Saleem Sherwani bagged a majority of Muslim votes.

The classic example of the Lodh’s support to Kalyan was witnessed in the prestigious Bulandshahar seat. In fact it was this seat, which made Kalyan leave the BJP.

The former BJP leader was opposed to the candidature of Ashok Pradhan and had urged the BJP high command to allow him to choose the party nominee from Bulandshshar. Pradhan, Kalyan alleged, had opposed his son Rajveer during the 2007 UP Assembly polls at Atrauli seat as a result of which he lost.

“Mulayam may have lost the Muslim votes because of the Kalyan factor but he more than made up the shortfall by transferring the votes of his community to the SP candidates at many places,” opined another newly elected SP MP.

It is however true that Mulayam’s hope that he would be able to consolidate ‘Muslim-Yadav-Lodh’ votes and win a large number of seats did not materialise.

“In fact Mulayam has also been harmed by the desertion of the Yadavs. How else can one explain the defeat of the SP nominee, in the Yadav-dominated Azamgarh constituency,” the MP asked.

Mulayam might have to wait till another general elections to make his presence felt at the Centre. Yet he may have to thank Kalyan Singh for whatever he gained in this election.