A year on, political challenges before Modi

The Narendra Modi government will mark its first anniversary on Monday.   Modi may have done reasonably well on a couple of fronts, nonetheless, he will have to address four major political challenges in the next two years to sustain his cultivated image as a seasoned politician greater than former prime minister A B Vajpayee.

Apart from wresting power in the two key states of the Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, he has his task cut out in the Rajya Sabha where the government is in a minority hampering passage of crucial bills.  As of now, the Congress has 68 members as against BJP’s 47 in a House of 245. The electoral arithmetic is such that it may not be able to notch up majority in RS till late 2018, a bit late to push big ticket reform measures to harvest electoral dividends in 2019.

Jammu and Kashmir, where Pakistani flags are being hoisted with impunity by separatists under the nose of PDP-BJP coalition government, is another political challenge for Modi. The prime minister also needs to rein in Hindutva  hot heads whose rabble rousing has dented the image of his government.

Two key legislations – the Land Acquisition Bill and the GST - became the first casualty thanks to sloppy political and Parliament strategy. Modi, who had staked his prestige on the land bill and even got ordinances promulgated twice to rush the bill, was forced to eat crow as the bills could not be passed. The ill-advised haste helped resurrect Rahul Gandhi as a pro-poor, pro-farmer leader whose “suit-boot ka sarkar” metaphor found resonance among a section of people.

Veteran BJP trio - Arun Shourie, Subramanian Swamy and Ram Jethmalani – recently went public raising different issues to embarrass Modi. In a television interview,  Shourie decried  Modi’s  focus on ”managing headlines” rather than governance. He took pot shots at the PMO-centric governance remote controlled by the triumvirate of Modi, Amit Shah and Arun Jaitley, with scant regard for intellectual inputs from outside. 

Swamy embarrassed the PM while he was in France. He threatened to legally challenge Modi’s commitment to buy 36 Rafale aircraft. He also demanded a probe into the acquisition of SpiceJet airlines by a party sympathiser alleging that the deal is opaque.  “I will continue bombarding the prime minister with letters until he acts,” Swamy told media. 

Jethmalani released a half-page advertorial titled “My frustration about repatriation of black money and contempt for this unpardonable betrayal”.

The veteran lawyer shot off 12 questions at Jaitley alleging that he was going slow on black money issue.  In  the first  nine  months of his government,  Modi  appeared invincible with a brute majority in the lower House  and a decimated Opposition. 

However, after BJP’s near wipe out  in Delhi,  contours of  political dynamics began to change and more and more BJP leaders are emboldened to take on Modi.

Bihar tangle

Bihar will be the next test case. Amidst talk of merger of Janata Parivar, a worried the BJP has been sending feelers to Mahadalit leader  and former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi  who had fallen out with Nitish, to neutralise the Janata Parivar. 

Manjhi is planning to launch a party which could cut into the votes of both Janata conglomeration and the BJP. If Lalu-Nitish-Congress fail to tie up, the BJP is sure to add Bihar to its kitty of states.

Conspiracy theorists hint at a revolt against Modi- Amit Shah duo if BJP loses Bihar. The next two years will test Modi’s ability to brave political storms. In 2016,  elections are due in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. A victory in Assam, improving performance in  Bengal and opening  saffron account in Kerala can partially retrieve Modi’s  waning popularity.  In Bengal, the BJP’s performance in the recent civic polls was drab compared to that of LS poll.

Uttar Pradesh is going to polls in 2017 and it may not be a cake walk for the BJP which had swept the Lok Sabha polls last year winning 72 out of 80 seats. Modi magic has since ebbed and in a recent by-election BJP came third after SP and the Congress. 

Jammu and Kashmir will be another challenge before Modi. The ill-advised alliance with PDP proving to be disastrous with the PDP winking at separatists. Local BJP leaders are baffled at the way the PDP is going soft on the separatists. 

They say Chief Minister Mufti Sayeed is compromising national security issues while BJP is keeping a mysterious silence.

BJP allies such as Akali Dal, Shiv Sena and TDP are also miffed with Modi for his big brotherly attitude.

Keeping the allies in good humour and driving a wedge between Congress and regional secular allies to pass key bills in the Upper House will be another challenge before Modi.

(The writer is a Delhi-based political commentator)