JOIN USThe Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) recently revised India’s renewable energy (RE) capacity target to 175 GW for 2021-22. Of this, 100 GW is planned from solar, 60 GW from wind, 10 GW from biomass and 5 GW from small hydro power projects.
While these announcements have caught global attention, it would be wise to pause and understand the implications of such an ambitious target. The current total installed capacity of power generation in India is around 273 GW while the share of RE capacity is 13.5 per cent (4.1 GW from solar and 23.8 GW from wind).
However, in terms of actual generation, RE contributes only 6 per cent (around 60 TWh out of 1,000 TWh). Taking into account that energy models from various studies predict a cumulative electricity generation of around 1800 TWh by 2021-22, RE is expected to have a share of 19.5 per cent.
The biggest challenge with RE is its inherent intermittency. Tamil Nadu – the frontrunner in wind energy with nearly 8 GW of installed capacity – faces severe problems because of this. Seasonal variations, hourly fluctuations, inadequate transmission infrastructure and lack of robust policy frameworks such as time of use, forecasting accuracy issues cripple evacuation in the state. Both developers and distribution utilities suffer losses in terms of revenue earned and unutilised power.
Several wind and solar power projects have faced delays in commissioning owing to complicated clearance procedures and local displacement issues. Availability of resources is another issue – the market price of biomass shoots up when word spreads that it is being used for power generation, and India’s burgeoning water scarcity narrative needs no elaboration.
There is a vital need to consider load flow analysis, resource constraints, balancing mechanisms and inclusive policy measures while planning RE penetration for meeting future electricity needs. An Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) framework must be developed which researchers and policy makers can rely on while constructing sustainable and realistic energy roadmaps for various states.
Different studies show that there are different energy demand scenarios for particular timeframes for each state. Planning new capacity installations for meeting the growing demand for electricity requires the following questions to be addressed:
a) What should be the source (coal, hydro, renewable, etc) of additional capacity for supply? Given a choice between different sources, what is the optimal choice in terms of important parameters such as cost, availability etc?; b) Where (geographically) will the new capacity be added considering location of power generation vis-a-vis the consumption region to minimise transmission loss?; c) What will be the cost of improving evacuation infrastructure to incorporate new RE capacity?; d) Do these choices adhere to existing policy regulations in the states (the Renewable Purchase Obligations and Electricity Regulatory Commission norms)?
Suitable land parcels
The IRP framework will use Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to identify suitable land parcels for RE projects. These parcels will be ranked based on a multi-criteria analysis.
Yearly capacity addition plans will be devised using these rankings so that policy makers, transmission companies and distribution utilities can strategise ahead of time. Based on such RE roadmaps, the resultant gap between supply and demand will have to be bridged using conventional energy sources such as coal and hydro.
Forecasting at granular levels (daily/hourly) for both solar and wind energy will lead to accurate load balancing strategies using energy storage, demand-side management and policy measures such as time of use.
Based on these requirements, availability of credible data sources is paramount for the framework to be as exhaustive as possible. Specific modules will be integrated and associated policy measures will be recommended along with implementable action plans for government stakeholders to meet particular demand scenarios.
The framework can be customised after stakeholder consultations to define specific problems in different states. This framework will also include other extendable software modules such as Risk Assessment, Financial Modelling and Life Cycle Analysis (LCA).
Policy makers across states will be able to use this framework to explore various options to meet their future electricity demand using an appropriate mix of conventional and renewable energy with robust evacuation and transmission infrastructures.
(The writers are researchers with the CSTEP, Bengaluru)