No Owaisi factor, it's NDA vs Nitish

As Bihar gears up for the fifth and last phase of elections on November 5, for which campaigning will end on Tuesday evening, one development which has kept everyone on tenterhooks is the Owaisi factor in Seemanchal area.

The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) leader Asaduddin Owaisi, in September, had announced amid much fanfare that he would field 24 candidates in Seemanchal area, the north-eastern part of Bihar, which has a sizeable Muslim population.

This was supposed to be Owaisi’s launch pad in Bihar from a zone which has the minority population varying from 20 per cent to 70 per cent in four districts – Purnia, Araria, Katihar and Kishanganj.

But having scaled down his decision to contest merely six Assembly seats as against earlier announced 24 constituencies, Owaisi factor has gone for a toss.

“Till a month back, it appeared that the contest in Seemanchal will be a triangular one between the Grand Alliance, NDA and the AIMIM. Except for one seat Kochadhaman – where the AIMIM has fielded its Bihar unit chief Akhtarul Imam, who earlier represented the constituency twice as Nitish’s nominee, the battle is a bipolar one in 23 out of 24 seats in Seemanchal,” a doctor based in Kishanganj, who is a keen political observer, told Deccan Herald over phone on Monday.

Voting in the last phase will take place in the remaining 57 constituencies on Thursday, but the 24 seats in Seemanchal assume significance as BJP and JD (U) had together won 19 out of 24 seats in the 2010 Assembly polls. The BJP was then in alliance with the Nitish’s party and made the most of Chief Minister’s popularity.

The trend reversed in 2014 parliamentary elections when the Congress won Kishanganj Lok Sabha seat while bagging another seat from nearby Supaul where Ranjeet Ranjan (wife of Pappu Yadav) won the Lok Sabha poll.

Pappu himself won from Madhepura Lok Sabha constituency as the RJD nominee defeating JD (U) national president Sharad Yadav.

Madhepura is also slated to go to Assembly polls on November 5, the last leg of five-phase election. Much like Owaisi, Pappu factor too has fizzled out in Kosi belt after the BJP distanced itself from the expelled RJD MP, largely due to his image.

With the NCP and the Samajwadi Party already turning into fringe players, the last decisive battle will be a direct contest between the Nitish-led grand alliance (GA) and the BJP-led NDA.