'Major economies to slow down,India's demographics favourable'

Last Updated 28 February 2016, 10:56 IST

The decline in growth rate of some major economies including some Asian countries will continue in the coming years barring India, where demographics will favour growth numbers, says a DBS report.

According to the global financial services major, a sharp fall in working age population growth has lowered potential growth in the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the UK and Asia, and will continue to do so in the coming years.

This share of working age population will fall sharply in the coming years throughout most of Asia, Japan, Europe and the US, especially sharp declines are already being seen in China, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore and they will continue, according to the UN, for another 25 years.

"India is the one country in Asia where demographics continue to favour growth," DBS said in a research note adding that "it is also home to Asia's lowest per-capita income, which means productivity growth can stay high for many years to come".

According to DBS, India's potential GDP growth will fall by only six-tenths of a percentage point (60 basis points) over the coming decade.

"The bad news is, India is still not performing up to the potential of its Asian peers," the report said.

The DBS report further said that "at an income level of USD 1775 per person in 2015, GDP should be growing closer to 8.5 per cent per year than the 7.4 per cent it grew by in 2015 and the 7.8 per cent we expect it to grow by this year".

The report said that though the markets have worked themselves into a tizzy over a "perceived crisis" in global growth, but there is no "growth crisis" anywhere in the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the UK and Asian economies.

"Thanks to falling growth in working age populations, and to steadily rising incomes in Asia, slow is the new fast," the report said.

Growth in the the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, UK economies is better than last year and the year before that. Moreover, it's running 14 per cent faster than potential. Where's the crisis?, it added.

(Published 28 February 2016, 10:56 IST)

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