Monsoon revival likely by Tuesday

Weather scientists tracking the annual seasonal rains said that a secondary monsoon current is expected to trigger the revival of the system which weakened substantially after onset in Kerala on May 23.

Monsoon had reached Kerala nine days ahead of the normal onset date of June one but a low pressure area off Tamil Nadu which developed into the devastating cyclone Aila two days later, sucked away moisture from the region and weakened the weather system.

On May 25, when Aila wreaked havoc in parts of Orissa and West Bengal, the monsoon had covered entire Kerala and Tamil Nadu and advanced into southern parts of coastal Karnataka, entire north eastern states, parts of coastal Orissa and most parts of West Bengal and Sikkim.

However, the secondary current may not be as intense as the original pulse but it may be strong enough to yield rain over a wide area in the peninsular region, scientists said.

But a positive side to the revival would be that monsoon may begin advancing from southern parts of coastal Karnataka, where it has been stalled.

Another advantage of the moderate monsoon current would be that there would be little disruption in rainfall and the annual rains may reach Mumbai by June seven, about three days ahead of the normal onset date.

Cyclone Aila had brought early monsoon rains to parts of Orissa, West Bengal and the entire northeast.

India Meteorological Department has forecast subdued monsoon activity outside the Bay islands.

An analysis of weather prediction models suggest that scattered rain or thundershower activity is likely over the Indo-Gangetic plains during the next couple of days and decrease thereafter.

Farmers in peninsular region of the country should begin sowing for the kharif season by June 10 after a spell of rains during the onset phase.

Monsoon rains are key to cultivation of kharif crops, which account for nearly 60 per cent of the farm output of the country. A good kharif season augurs well for a range of goods and services.

About 235 million farmers are dependent on monsoon rains for reaping a good harvest. The monsoon also replenishes water levels in reservoirs, aiding irrigation and hydel power generation