Renegade to prez: rise of Michel Aoun

To improve Lebanon's relations with its Arab allies, Aoun must wean it away from Iran's sphere of influence.

After a debilitating two-and-a-half years without a president, Lebanon finally got one last month – General Michel Aoun. A central character in the country’s complicated political power structure, Aoun fulfilled his lifelong ambition at the age of 81. He secured the presidency by winning the support of at least 65 MPs in the 128-seat parliament.

Under Lebanon’s confessional constitution, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim. The parliamentary vote on October 31 was the 46th since May 2014, when former president Michel Suleiman stepped down at the end of his term.

Lebanon, in many ways, is a microcosm of West Asia. It is home to people of almost all ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups found elsewhere in the region. Outside forces – both regional states and the Big Powers – have held sway over different Lebanese socio-political and sectarian parties. And these groups themselves have not hesitated to receive outside help whenever they felt their interests were at threat – or could be furthered with foreign assistance. 

In 1989, Aoun refused to attend the Taif conference in Saudi Arabia, held to help end the Lebanese Civil War. He denounced the Christian politicians who attended it as traitors.

In 1990, believing that he was ‘president’, he declared a ‘war’ on Syrian troops in Beirut, only to find himself seeking shelter in the French ambassador’s residence after his forces were decimated. Despite bombastic speeches denouncing Syrian presence in his country, and vowing to fight on, he surrendered as the tanks rolled in. He spent a year at the diplomatic compound before being allowed to go into exile in France. 

Alliances, and animosities, in Lebanon are rarely permanent. As he took the oath last month, Aoun expressed support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s civil war; he has also been a fervent ally of Hezbollah, the most powerful armed force in Lebanon, much more so than the Lebanese army.

Aoun’s ascension to presidency could be seen as a victory for Hezbollah and, by extension, for its patron Iran, which is locked in a struggle for regional influence with Saudi Arabia. His victory will give the powerful Shiite Muslim group the opportunity to further consolidate its political position within Lebanon.

Aoun has made all the right noises about fighting terror and trying to free the remaining sliver of Lebanese land that is still under Israeli occupation, the Shebaa Farms.

But first things first: the formation of a government. This will most likely be done by former prime minister Saad al-Hariri, son of billionaire former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, who was blown to bits in a 2005 bombing blamed on elements close to Syria, specifically, members of Hezbollah. If he truly wants to deliver on his promises, Aoun must ensure that the cabinet is made up of people chosen for their honesty and competence, and not on the basis of sect or any other similar considerations.

Though Hezbollah has wholeheartedly joined the war in Syria on the side of the Assad dictatorship, the Lebanese state itself has, remarkably, more or less managed to avoid getting suck-ed into the terrifying war unravelling its eastern neighbour. Aoun will likely rely on his allies, especially Hezbollah, to ensure that this continues to be the case.

The entry into the war of the group’s soldiers, along with elite Iranian troops and Russia’s air power, have tilted the balance in the regime’s favour. But it has strained Beirut’s relations with the Gulf states; Saudi Arabia in particular.

Lebanon has been a favourite regional holiday destination for high-spending Gulf tourists, who are now increasingly staying away. As a result, the national economy has taken a major hit. Add to this the fact that the country’s population has swelled by 20% with the arrival of more than a million Syrian refugees. Aoun will have to work hard to improve his country’s relations with its traditional Arab allies.

The best way of doing so would be to wean Lebanon away from Iran’s sphere of influence. That, however, is easier said than done, considering Hezbollah’s umbilical ties to the Islamic Republic, and the fact that Aoun is personally beholden to the group. 

The country has experienced stagnation, unemployment, and runaway inflation. However, here Aoun can marshal the resources of his talented, well-educated people to bring about an economic recovery.

Lebanon, a country of only about four million, also has a diaspora population about twice that number (Brazilian President Michel Temer and three-time US presidential candidate Ralph Nader, Renault and Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn and Mexican multi-billionaire Carlos Slim Helou, and superstars Shakira and Salma Hayek are all of Lebanese descent). Many in the diaspora have maintained links to the motherland.

Aoun has waited all his political life for this day. This is his chance to prove that he can be the president for the entire country, and not of only those who have enabled him to attain the top post.

(The writer is an editor at The Delma Institute, a foreign affairs research house based in the UAE)