UP bypoll litmus test awaits BJP

The bypolls for the two Lok Sabha seats to be vacated by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya would not only be a test of the BJP but also of the Opposition in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh (UP).

Adityanath and Maurya, who were members of the Lok Sabha from Gorakhpur and Phulpur seats, respectively, need to become a member of either of the two houses of the legislature before the expiry of the stipulated six-month period by September 19. The bypolls, the dates of which have not yet been announced, are crucial for the BJP as they come barely one-and-a-half-year before the next Lok Sabha elections.

A loss in any of the two seats will certainly be a huge setback for the BJP, which is striving hard to repeat its 2014 performance when the party had won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state with its alliance partner the Apna Dal.

That the BJP was taking the bypolls lightly was evident from the fact that party president Amit Shah not only spent three days in the state capital recently but also held meetings with senior state leaders to chalk out the electoral strategy.

The bypolls assume added significance in view of the efforts by the Opposition parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress to stitch a ‘mahagathbandhan’ (Grand Alliance) to pose a tough challenge to the BJP.

The SP has already dropped hints that it was not averse to joining hands with the BSP to form a Grand Alliance in Uttar Pradesh to “thwart” the BJP from forming a government after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The SP chief, Akhilesh Yadav, has made it clear on numerous occasions that he will have no problems in joining hands with the BSP and the Congress to take on the BJP in 2019.

“One can imagine the fate of the BJP if the SP, Congress and the BSP join hands in UP,” he had said while making a speech in the Legislative Council a few days ago.

Senior SP leader Shivpal Singh Yadav also supported the alliance saying that the country needed a “secular government.” “Mayawati (BSP supremo) cannot fight the BJP on her own,” Shivpal said. He, however, did not reveal if the Congress would also be part of a possible Grand Alliance in UP.

The SP leaders here said that the efforts to form a Grand Alliance should continue.
“We must prove that Nitish Kumar’s departure from our ranks has no impact on the alliance efforts,” the SP leader added. They also stressed that the efforts to form a Grand Alliance must continue irrespective of Nitish’s exit.

Forging forces
The BSP and the Congress leaders are also not averse to the idea of a Grand Alliance. The leaders of the two parties feel that a combined Opposition will force the BJP on the back foot and thwart its march to power in 2019. “The bypolls at Phulpur and Gorakhpur will be a test for us also should such an alliance be formed,” commented a senior UP Congress leader.

The confidence of the Opposition parties stems from the fact that both in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and the 2017 Assembly elections, the saffron party had polled around 40% votes. “Our combined strength has the potential to defeat the BJP,” the Congress leader said.

Whether a Grand Alliance in UP could be in the offing would be clear from the forthcoming Lok Sabha bypolls. The BJP, according to the political observers, will not be oblivious of the dangers that a combined Opposition may pose. “The electoral arithmetic shows that an alliance of the SP, BSP and the Congress may make things difficult for the BJP,” says Dinesh Kumar, a former faculty at the University of Lucknow.

There already were speculations that Mayawati could be the Grand Alliance candidate from Phulpur, a constituency which had been represented by first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru.

In fact, the mere speculation about Mayawati’s possible candidature as the combined Opposition nominee from Phulpur triggered alarm bells within the BJP and party leaders started talking about shifting Maurya to the Centre as a minister. “Maurya will not have to resign if he shifts to the Centre and then there will be no bypoll at Phulpur,” said a senior state BJP leader.

A source in the BJP did not rule out the possibility of Maurya shifting to the Centre, given reports that all was not well between him and Adityanath. A section of the BJP, however, feels that such a move may send a wrong message and will only encourage Opposition unity.

“We need to show that we are not scared of the Opposition unity,” said another BJP leader. In 2014, Adityanath had polled over 5.39 lakh votes while the tally of the SP, BSP and the Congress together stood at 4.47 lakh votes.

Similarly, in Phulpur, Maurya had polled 5.03 lakh votes as against 4.16 lakh votes polled by the three Opposition candidates, including former cricketer and Congress candidate Mohammed Kaif. Some BJP leaders, however, appear to be uncertain.
“In 2014, there was a Modi wave…things may not be the same in the bypolls…it is doubtful if the prime minister will campaign,” said a BJP leader. The party also faces another problem in Gorakhpur, choosing a candidate. The Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seat had always been represented by the ‘mahant’ (chief) of the Gorakhnath Temple since 1967. But in the bypolls, this will change as the current ‘mahant’ is the chief minister.