Post-Jaya, TN politics changes wind

It’s rumoured that M G Ramachandran, the founder of the AIADMK, did not want the party to survive after his death. Thirty years later, after his successor J Jayalalithaa’s death, the AIADMK is at a crossroads again. Months before she had passed away, though, Jayalalithaa had emphatically declared in the state Assembly that the party will survive her. “Even after I am gone, AIADMK will be there. It will be there for another hundred years,” she had thundered. But the ground reality seems different. Her death in December 2016 has brought about a decisive shift in the AIADMK, as also in the state’s politics.

Used to Jayalalithaa’s almost dictatorial style, the AIADMK was clearly left in the lurch after her death. Despite the clear public opinion against V K Sasikala – Jayalalithaa’s friend and ‘soul sister’ – the second-rung leaders rallied around her, pleading with her to take on the party mantle. During Jayalalithaa’s reign, Sasikala had exerted a rare kind of influence in the party as the Chinnamma (the junior mother). Leaders were always advised to turn to her for advice, and she had always played a crucial role during elections.

Jayalalithaa also had this uncanny knack of keeping the party leaders guessing over the second-line leadership. If she picked O Panneerselvam (OPS) as stand-in chief minister twice, it was only as a reward for his unflinching loyalty. On neither occasion did OPS ever overstep his authority, always holding himself within her line. When Jayalalithaa felt that leaders like Natham Viswanathan and Senthil Balaji were growing big for their shoes, she cut them to size by stripping them of posts. Her penchant for making changes in the cabinet was well-known. But in doing so, Jayalalithaa was clearly sending out the message that she had no personal favourite to succeed her. Sasikala was perhaps the only exception. Twice ousted from the party and from Jayalalithaa’s residence Poes Garden – in 1996 and in 2011 – twice she came back into favour. Indeed, she was the only one by Jayalalithaa’s side during her 70 days in hospital.

When she died, the party seemed left with no choice and, in a controversial development, Sasikala took one of the two powerful posts Jayalalithaa held – that of party general secretary. Trouble began when she moved aggressively to take the other post, too – she wanted to be chief minister. She had been lying in wait for too long. Panneerselvam, who had willingly made way for Jayalalithaa each time she wanted him to, first obliged but soon threw a bombshell. In the first week of February, he rebelled against her, even as she was trying frantically to get acting Governor Vidyasagar Rao to let her take oathe as CM. A week later, the Supreme Court delivered the final blow, convicting Sasikala in the Jayalalithaa disproportionate assets.

But she was not done yet. Before going to the jail, Sasikala handpicked Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS) as chief minister and named her nephew TTV Dhinakaran the party’s general secretary. But it did not take long for the EPS camp to turn away from Sasikala.

In a turn of events apparently guided by the top leadership of the BJP, the OPS and EPS camps merged. Panneerselvam became the party’s coordinator and the state’s deputy chief minister. Sources say he might also become the party general secretary after the general council meets to remove Sasikala from the post.

The dual leadership – the party headed by Panneerselvam and the government by Palaniswami – is a new experiment for the AIADMK. When leader after leader queued up at Poes Garden, pleading with Sasikala to accept the party’s leadership, they did so perhaps fearing exactly this – multiple centres of power. For a party like the AIADMK, used to being commanded by a single, charismatic leader at any point of time, this spells trouble. Party seniors feel this arrangement will not work. For one, Panneerselvam might not relish for long the idea of being deputy to Palaniswami, who was largely unknown until Jayalalithaa’s death and being catapulted into the limelight by Sasikala. For Palaniswami, not having a hold over the party might endanger his position as CM sooner or later. Jayalalithaa could inspire awe and fear in her cadres and leaders even when she was not CM because she was the general secretary of the party.

Panneerselvam and Palaniswami will also face a constant threat from Dhinakaran and the wider Sasikala family, infamously called the ‘Mannargudi Mafia’. Putting aside their family squabbles, Dhinakaran and Sasikala’s brother V Divaharan have come together to strengthen Sasikala’s still considerable grip on the party. As many as 19 MLAs met Governor Rao just a day after the EPS-OPS merger and expressed their support to Dhinakaran. At least 10 more MLAs are said to be keen to switch to Dhinakaran’s camp. The Sasikala family, it is said, is not keen on bringing about elections, but if it comes to that, “they would not hesitate”.

In an apparent bid to stop MLAs from crossing over, party whip S Rajendran has recommended disqualification of Dhinakaran’s 19 MLAs. But such a move would look fatuous since no such action was taken against the 11 MLAs in the OPS camp.

But what perhaps looks more problematic for the AIADMK now is the apparent ‘guidance’ from the central BJP leadership, and rumours that the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo want to subsume the AIADMK into the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Not so long ago, Jayalalithaa had exhorted the voters to choose between Modi and herself. The AIADMK is now in danger of losing its identity and bargaining power in the federal setup.

Since Jayalalithaa’s death, the BJP has been keen on the AIADMK and sees it as the key to unlocking Tamil Nadu for the saffron party. When Modi made time to meet Panneerselvam four times in the span of a week, it was clear that the BJP had a major role in the merger of the factions.

Sources say the BJP might let the EPS-OPS arrangement work till 2019 and perhaps manoeuvre the state towards assembly polls along with Lok Sabha elections. This, party sources say, will provide them an opportunity to gain ground in the state.

If Dhinakaran manages to derail the EPS-OPS government, that would upset the BJP’s plans. But with three Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA) violation cases against him, it may not be difficult to silence him. Still, the ‘Mannargudi Mafia’ is in no mood to give up. The Sasikala family feels that the BJP’s hand in AIADMK affairs will be exposed if the Centre unleashes law enforcement agencies against Dhinakaran. But whether that will help the family regain control of the AIADMK is in question.

An election – whenever that happens – might throw up the final answer.