JOIN USNorth Korean Missile Crisis
North Korea rattled the world yet again by firing a Hwasong-12 medium-range ballistic missile on the morning of September 15. The missile flew over Japan’s southern island of Hokkaido, the second time Pyongyang has fired in that direction in the space of a few days. Pyongyang’s intention was to send a message that the US territory of Guam, about 3,400 km from the country, was in its sights, and so it fired the missile towards a virtual target somewhere in the Pacific, about the same distance as Guam.
The act evoked condemnation around the world. The series of missiles launched and the country’s sixth nuclear test – claimed to be a thermonuclear bomb -- on September 3, has led to the latest heightening of tensions in the region. If Pyongyang’s intent was to get American attention, it certainly has succeeded.
The Hwasong-12 missile attained an altitude of about 800 km and flew a distance of 3,700 km along “a textbook trajectory,” with the firing angle set low intentionally as it flew over the Japanese archipelago, which allowed Pyongyang to examine the extent of Japan’s alarm and how the US would react. Its purpose was also to assess the missile firing during an actual combat situation, thereby demonstrating the progress in the country’s missile technology. This was the third launch of the same Hwasong-12, following launches on May 14 and August 29. It is suspected that Pyongyang developed the engines in those missiles based on RD-250 engines produced in a missile factory in Ukraine.
This military provocation by North Korea comes less than a week after the UN Security Council adopted a fresh, stricter sanctions resolution against the country. As tensions escalated in the Pacific, the Japanese government issued warnings to 12 of its prefectures in eastern to northern Japan via its J-Alert early warning system. There were no reports of damage on aircraft or ships from the missile firing.
Japan made no attempt to shoot the missile down although it flew over its airspace. Opinions differ over whether it was the right decision or not. Given the Kim Jong-un regime’s belligerent posture, intercepting the missile mid-air could have angered the ruler in Pyongyang and could have led to more retaliatory actions.
The missile firing took place within hours after Prime Minister Abe Shinzo had returned home from a successful trip to India, during which he had also discussed with Prime Minister Narendra Modi the North Korean missile and nuclear issues. Tokyo lodged a protest with Pyongyang via a diplomatic channel. Calling Pyongyang’s latest act as “outrageous and intolerable”, Abe said “Japan cannot tolerate at all North Korea’s repeated outrageous behaviour against the international community’s resolve to pursue a peaceful solution (to the missile and nuclear problem)”.
North Korea’s missile launch was in reaction to the UN Security Council’s unanimous adoption of the new US-drafted resolution on September 11 imposing tougher sanctions, including restrictions on UN member states’ oil exports to North Korea. Kim Jong-un was angered that Japan supported the resolution.
The international community has tried many times both carrot and stick policies on North Korea with a view to find a solution to the nuclear and missile crisis. They have yielded little result. Each time North Korea launches another missile, it demonstrates an improved attack capability to send the message to the US that it will not bow to pressure from the international community.
Just like in August, this time too Japan, the US and South Korea requested Ethiopia, the current Security Council chair, to call an emergency session of the powerful UN body to discuss the issue urgently. Both in Japan and South Korea, the respective National Security Councils huddled to seek ways to respond to the missile test. Japan’s Foreign Minister Taro Kono separately called US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and South Korea’s Foreign Minister Kang Kyung Wha over the North Korean crisis, calling upon them to work in unison on full implementation of the new sanctions resolutions.
The real worry is that when North Korea successfully conducted a thermonuclear bomb test on September 3, it proved that Pyongyang has succeeded in miniaturising a nuclear warhead small enough to be loaded onto an intercontinental ballistic missile. This presents for the US and its allies a new and more potent challenge than they have faced hitherto from the Kim Jong-un regime. Soon after the new sanctions were announced, Pyongyang went belligerent, threatening to use nuclear weapons to “sink” Japan and reduce the US to “ashes and darkness” for backing the UNSC resolution.
Although the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) determined that the missile launch did not pose a threat to North America and the US Pacific Command said it did not pose a threat to Guam, either, there is no denying that the sense of fear in Japan is real. On the request of the US and Japan, the UN Security Council convened an urgent meeting in the afternoon the same day to review the escalatory action by North Korea.
China, North Korea’s only international ally, also seems to be frustrated with North Korea’s continued defiance of world counsel. It did try to influence Pyongyang to change its policies but has been unsuccessful. Both China and Russia, wielding veto power in the Security Council, want a compromise and have expressed their determination to see a return to dialogue to resolve the issue. Both have urged the US to suspend its joint annual military exercises with South Korea in exchange for a North Korean nuclear freeze.
The US finds the proposal unacceptable and dismissed it as insulting. China, too, has its own strategic compulsions. North Korea continues to maintain its stand that the joint military drills are preparation for invasion. With both an unpredictable Donald Trump and an impetuous Kim Jong-un unwilling to yield ground, the stalemate continues, with no room for resolution in the near future, and the risk of an unintended conflict that could assume global dimensions keeps the world on edge.
(Dr. Panda is currently the Indian Council for Cultural Relations India Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan).