JOIN USIn the 70 years since Independence, if there has been one time-tested ally of India, it has been Russia. Since the Soviet era, both countries have shared amicable relations, so much so that the US and its allies often registered their suspicion about India being part of the Soviet camp during the Cold War despite being a leader of the non-aligned movement.
Though India has always maintained a delicate balance between the superpowers in the international system and for long refrained from joining a particular grouping for its own advantage, in the last couple of years, India's position seems to have made a 'shift' - searching for allies, forging new relationships and even joining new groupings like the 'QUAD'.
The reason for this shift in India's positioning in the international system is primarily because of India's overall growth in stature as an 'emerging power' in the system. India is not the same country that it used to be back in the Cold War period.
Today, India's ambitions and capabilities as a regional power have increased manifold. Now, India can't afford to behave as it did earlier, and that's why these shifts are being observed in Indian foreign policy.
This has significantly changed equations not only between India and Russia, but also Russia's equations with China and Pakistan. Now, one can see a 'reluctant romance' developing between Islamabad and Moscow. For a long time, the US and Pakistan were on one side, while India and Russia were on the other.
But now, with Russia signalling its support for Pakistan's candidature for the Nuclear Suppliers Group, things are changing fast. The Russia-Pakistan joint military exercises are another major concern for India. The reason for the concern is that though India is forging new alliances with other countries, none of them have a long-standing relationship with India, as Russia has had.
Longevity in relations, especially in international relations, matters a lot. This is because it helps build solid 'mutual trust' between two states in an international system otherwise characterised by changing national interests.
The question is, does India have the same level of trust in any another state in the system as it had with Russia? Can any other nation replace Russia and become India's steadfast ally that New Delhi can trust in a time of need? The answer is in the negative, at least for now. It may be possible in the future, but it is not the case today.
In international relations, as in life, the present is no less important than the future. In fact, the actions of the present determine the kind of future one is going to have. Therefore, India needs to re-emphasise its relations with Russia, which is increasingly engaging with China.
Evident rift
In December last, when India hosted the foreign ministers of both Russia and China for the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral, the fault lines in India's equations with Russia became apparent to international relations observers.
India was attempting to restore its equation with Russia, especially as the RIC-trilateral meet was happening just a month after India joined the 'QUAD' (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), a grouping of four democracies, namely the US, India, Australia and Japan, with China on the mind.
From a non-aligned country, India has taken a path to become a 'multi-aligned' country. Micro-managing a large number of relations with different countries, groups, and alliances, etc., which between themselves don't necessarily share good relations, is a delicate task for any country to achieve.
The problem for India in the future could be that it might be left with having too much on its plate. Since foreign policy takes time to build and take shape, the implications of India's present day engagements with other nations is going to show concrete results in the future. These results might be complex in nature. The biggest fear in India's foreign policy circles is that the present shift in equations with Russia could lead to a drift of Russia away from India.
The other big fear is that with this drift, the world might see a Russia-China-Pakistan trilateral emerge, if India doesn't play its cards well. China is ever ready to see this kind of alliance getting built as it would be highly detrimental to India's interests, both regionally as well as globally.
India needs to re-engage with Russia on a priority basis. The relation between the two countries would be more of equal partners in the times to come, unlike in the past. India needs to show Russia that it still remains a very important 'friend' of India, despite India trying to forge new alliances with other countries. If India manages to do that, it should be considered a big 'diplomatic win' for India.
(The writer is Junior Research Fellow, School of International Studies, JNU)