Monsoon revival expected soon

If rain eludes till June-end, the sowing season may be hit

 In another three days, a low pressure zone is expected to be formed over Orissa and north Andhra Pradesh.

The Arabian Sea arm of the monsoon will be strengthened around the same time with an increase in the wind velocity.

Development of these systems on both sides of Indian land mass will lead to the formation of a climatic bridge between the two favourable monsoon weather pattern by June 28 bringing rain in central and peninsular India, a weather scientist told Deccan Herald.

“The central and peninsular India will have rain in the next one week to 10 days. But it will not go up to the Gangetic plains, unless a new system forms up,” he said. Copious rain is expected in these two regions by June end.

Monsoon arrived on Kerala coast on May 23 – a week in advance and progresses till June 7 though bulk of the moisture was taken away by the cyclone Aila. However, monsoon did not move at all for the next 13 days.

In the last two days, the monsoon trough moved along the western coast and is likely to reach Mumbai by June 25. It can go up to south Gujarat.

Mumbaikars experienced pre-monsoon showers on Tuesday.

Oscillation

What is triggering this monsoon revival is a poorly-understood weather phenomenon called Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) in which anomalous rainfall events travels in the equatorial region.

A second reason is formation of a strong high pressure belt in the southern Indian Ocean near an island from where the monsoon system originates.

The MJO will enter the Indian region in the next two days triggering formation of the low pressure zone along the eastern coast. Concurrently there will be strong monsoon current from the Arabian Sea, thanks to the high pressure zone, which is pushing the equatorial winds towards the north.

“The wind velocity is likely to be more than 20 mt per sec (around 40 knots) – favourable to monsoon,” he said.

But despite the foreseeable respite along the west coast, a large section of farmers in the central and northern India are worrying a lot.

In the week ending June 17, almost three-fourth of the country barely received any rainfall. If rain eludes them till June end, it may snowball a crisis situation as sowing of crops will adversely be affected. July rainfall is crucial to prepare the ground for sowing paddy, maize, bazra, ragi, groundnut, pigeon pea, black gram, golden gram and sugarcane.

While weather scientists provide hopes for the farmers in central India, the peasants in the Gangetic plains continue to look skywards for a divine intervention. The reeling heat wave is adding to their despair. The national capital is sizzling under a sweltering heat wave with mercury touching 45 degrees Celsius on Tuesday forcing most of the people stay indoor.