Assembly Elections Results 2022: All eyes on Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh as BJP eyes return

Counting of votes will be held on Thursday for the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections. The polls for Gujarat were held in two phases on December 1 and 5 across 33 districts of the BJP-ruled state. The counting of votes will start at 8 am at 37 counting centres covering the 182 Assembly seats. While the contest in Gujarat has traditionally been between the BJP and Congress, it was three-cornered this time around with Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) entering the poll arena. Exit polls have predicted a big majority for the BJP in Gujarat and if these projections are any indication, the saffron party is all set to retain power in the state for the seventh consecutive term. More than 10,000 security personnel, returning officers, and other support staff will oversee the counting of votes for the Himachal Pradesh assembly polls on Thursday.The counting will start at 8 am in 68 counting halls spread across 59 locations throughout the state. Exit polls had predicted a photo finish in this election between the Congress and the BJP.

Himachal Pradesh Polls: Constituencies where BJP overturned Cong in last election

With Himachal Pradesh Assembly Elections right around the corner, here is a look at Congress-ruled constituencies that the current-ruling Bharatiya Janata Party snatched in the last elections.

In 2012, out of the total 68 seats in the state assembly, Congress won 36 seats, thus proving the majority, while BJP managed to get 26 seats. In the subsequent 2017 elections, BJP took the mantle from the ruling Congress, winning 44 seats, with the grand old party only managing to win 21 seats.

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In Himachal Pradesh, BJP has a question: Where is Rahul Gandhi?

In another 48 hours, the campaigning for the Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections will be over but it is one leader’s absence that has not gone unnoticed -- Rahul Gandhi's.

This would be the first Assembly election in which top Congress leader Rahul, who is into his 62nd day of the ambitious Bharat Jodo Yatra, will not be campaigning for the party in years even as the BJP has alleged that he is keeping away from the state fearing another defeat and does not want to take responsibility.

Despite party workers’ demands, Rahul has decided to continue with the Kanyakumari to Kashmir ‘padayatra without campaigning for the party in the hill state where the ruling BJP is said to be facing anti-incumbency. Party workers are upset that Rahul has not campaigned even for a day.

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All you need to know about Himachal Pradesh polls 2022

After a series of political campaigns by the competing parties, the power is now with the people of Himachal Pradesh as they decide who will govern the hill state for the next five years.

As the state seals its fate, the major factor to look forward to is if Himachal will break the trend of anti-incumbency.

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Why Modi's personality cult could hurt BJP and RSS

During the Himachal Pradesh election campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that every vote for 'kamal ka phool' would 'come directly to Modi's account as a blessing'. The statement propagates a personality cult that undermines the formal party hierarchy and even the importance of its ideology. In electoral politics, it has been tried by many, and in the recent past, most successfully by Mamata Banerjee. During the 2021 campaign, Bengal's 'Didi' declared that she was the candidate for all 294 assembly seats of Bengal and won a big mandate.

This tendency to portray oneself as larger than life fits well with all charismatic leaders, for they try to sway people's minds with their credibility. It worked well for Indira Gandhi, Lalu Prasad, and Mamata Banerjee and is now working well for Narendra Modi. Some leaders, such as Lalu Prasad and Modi, often refer to themselves in the third person.

However, apart from Modi, all the others belong to a different structure of political setup where the legacy of the leader is transferred to someone from the leader's family. But in an open party, such a legacy transfer is not possible. This vital difference puts the BJP and its ideological mentor, the RSS, in a tight spot in the face of Modi's personality cult.

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Falling apple prices, medical college and support to tourism key poll issues in Himachal's Kullu

Falling market prices of apple, demand for a medical college, and support to tourism have emerged as key election issues in the Kullu region which sends four legislators to the 68-member Himachal Pradesh Assembly.

Horticulturists say rising input costs due to higher prices of fertiliser, pesticides and reduced government support have made apple farming a loss-making venture.

The Kullu region, the economy of which is dependent on tourism and horticulture, has four Assembly seats of Manali, Kullu Sadar, Banjar and Anni.

"Apple growers are unhappy here as rates have fallen to the level of 2012 and 2013. Adani Ambanis are also manipulating the rates. This issue is going to impact elections in all the four seats in this apple belt," Naresh Chaudhary, an apple grower in Manali, said.

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Gujarat polls: Prestige battle on in minority and Dalit-dominated Danilimda seat as BJP seeks to trounce Congress

As the BJP’s high-pitched campaign in Gujarat gears up for the second phase of polling, there are two constituencies where the party’s stakes are visibly high. Unjha in Vadnagar and Mansa in Gandhinagar are linked to the tallest leaders. Vadnagar is home to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Mansa is where Amit Shah spent the formative years of his life.

And yet, the party lost both seats in 2017 to Congress. Mansa has been with Congress for the past three terms. Unjha, on the other hand, went to the Congress and was eventually wrested by the BJP in 2019 after the Congress MLA Asha Patel moved to BJP and bagged the seat in the ensuing bypoll.

At Unjha’s Jeera Mandi, the support for the BJP is vocal. “This time the party has fielded a man who is known for his social work,” says a trader.

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Gujarat elections: A tale of two constituencies

As the BJP’s high-pitched campaign in Gujarat gears up for the second phase of polling, there are two constituencies where the party’s stakes are visibly high. Unjha in Vadnagar and Mansa in Gandhinagar are linked to the tallest leaders. Vadnagar is home to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Mansa is where Amit Shah spent the formative years of his life.

And yet, the party lost both seats in 2017 to Congress. Mansa has been with Congress for the past three terms. Unjha, on the other hand, went to the Congress and was eventually wrested by the BJP in 2019 after the Congress MLA Asha Patel moved to BJP and bagged the seat in the ensuing bypoll.

At Unjha’s Jeera Mandi, the support for the BJP is vocal. “This time the party has fielded a man who is known for his social work,” says a trader.

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People of Himachal have decided to go with Modi; all other factors irrelevant: CM Thakur

On the eve of polling in the Himachal Pradesh assembly elections, Chief Minister Jairam Thakur said the state has made up its mind to go with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and vote for the BJP and all other factors have become irrelevant.

Thakur, who is leading the BJP campaign, said the benefits of "double engine government" -- the same party being in power at the Centre and in the state -- will trump all issues and make the BJP victorious.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been pulling out all the stops for a second term in the hill state, which has been voting out the incumbent since 1980s.

"We have to admit that the double engine government issue -- BJP at the Centre and in the state -- is in the hearts and minds of the people here and Himachal has made up its mind that it will go with PM Modi," Thakur said, adding other factors are irrelevant.

On rebel candidates posing trouble for the party, the chief minister said they would impact the results in six to seven assembly seats, not more.

Grappling with the problem of rebellion, the BJP has expelled several leaders in the run-up to the polls. On Friday, the party expelled state executive committee member Anu Thakur for "anti-party" activities.

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The importance of the Patels in Gujarat

Though Patels account for nearly 18 per cent of Gujarat's population, 44 Patidar MLAs were elected in 2017, which shows their influence in Gujarat's politics.

Some of the seats having high-concentration of Patidar voters in Saurashtra region are - Morbi, Tankara, Gondal, Dhoraji, Amreli, Savarkundla, Jetpur, Rajkot East, Rajkot West and Rajkot South.

While Vijapur, Visnagar, Mehsana and Unjha seats in north Gujarat have a considerable number of Patidar voters, there are at least five such seats in Ahmedabad city - Ghatlodia, Sabarmati, Maninagar, Nikol and Naroda. In south Gujarat, several seats in Surat city are considered as Patidar bastions, including Varachha, Kamrej and Katargam.

In Gujarat, Patidars hold key to power as their anger against the BJP wanes

All eyes are once again on the less-in-number yet influential Patidar or Patel community of Gujarat, which had put the ruling BJP on the edge in the 2017 Assembly elections that took place in the shadow of Hardik Patel-led quota agitation to secure OBC status for the community.

While political analysts believe that most Patidars will vote for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) this time, former quota stir leaders think that many young voters from the community are open to other options, such as new entrant - the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

In the 2017 Assembly elections, despite setting an ambitious target of winning 150 out of 182 seats, the BJP barely managed to retain its bastion with 99 seats. It is believed that owing to the whirlwind campaign by Hardik Patel against the BJP, the opposition Congress emerged victorious on 77 seats. As per the community's estimate, there are nearly 40 seats in Gujarat where Patidar voters play a decisive role. Some community leaders claim they are a dominant force on 50 seats.

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Himachal Pradesh recorded 65.92% turnout in Assembly polls

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)is combating anti-incumbency in the swing state to come back to power, while the Congress is looking to continue the tradition of the state voting an alternate party to power. While the BJP was battling infighting and disgruntlement over the distribution of tickets, the Congress had to contend with the loss of its tallest leader, former chief minister Virbhadra Singh, and with the prospect of one too many chief ministerial candidates.

Several centenarians, too, cast their votes, with the Election Commission stating that there are over 1.21 lakh people above 80 years of age and 1,136 centenarians. 106-year-old Shyam Saran Negi, independent India’s first voter, had cast his vote on November 2 via post-ballot in what was his 34th and last assembly election, three days before he passed away on November 5. ECI officials said that 105-year-old Naro Devi was one of the oldest voters who cast her vote at polling booth number 122 at Chamba’s Churah assembly constituency.

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Gujarat polls: BJP banking on Hindutva, Modi factor in Sabarkantha amid unemployment concerns

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Gujarat is hoping to make a clean sweep in the Dalit and tribal-dominated Sabarkantha district comprising four Assembly constituencies even as unemployment has become a major issue that the ruling party hopes to negate with Hindutva and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's charisma.

The Congress is hopeful of improving its tally from the single seat it had won last time and is carrying out a silent campaign in the rural areas of the district. Although the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is in the fray in the district, apart from the Khedbrahma seat, it is not a factor in the remaining three, whereas independents from Congress and the BJP might play a spoilsport for both the parties in two seats.

Sabarkantha comprises Himatnagar, Idar, Khedbrahma and Prantij assembly segments. Except for Khedbrahma, known as a Congress bastion, the saffron camp had won the remaining three in 2017. The district has around 11 lakh voters spread across, of whom Scheduled Tribes comprise 30 per cent. The Scheduled Caste community accounts for 20 per cent of the total electorate, Muslims around two per cent, Patels 10 per cent, while the remaining include Kshatriya, Rajput, Koli, Brahmins and other communities. Nearly 85 per cent of the voters live in rural areas, and the district's economy revolves around agriculture, small business, the ceramics industry in Himatnagar and milk processing.

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Independent MLAs may gain importance in case of hung Assembly in Himachal Pradesh

As many political analysts have predicted chances of a hung Assembly in Himachal Pradesh, rebels from the Congress and BJP, who contested as independent candidates, have started forming pressure groups to capitalise on the situation. This time, around 21 rebels arein the fray.

According to News 18 report, if these candidates win in their respective seats, theymay play an imperative role in the formation of the governmentin case of a hung Assembly.Meetings between independent candidates have attracted media’s attention.

According to the report, three independent candidates—Kirpal Singh Parmar (Fatehpur), Manohar Dhiman (Indora) and Sanjay Prashar (Jaswan Pragpur)—recently held a meeting in Dharamshala to discuss the poll results.

Rebels contesting in the Kangra and Manali-Kullu belts are predicted to be spoilsports, which may prove to be a big blow for the BJP and Congress candidates.

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Gujarat elections: Congress faces AIMIM competitor in battle for Muslim votes in Jamalpur Khadia

The contest for the Muslim-dominated Jamalpur Khadia Assembly constituency in Ahmedabad city has become a three-cornered one with the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM, a cause of worry especially for Congress as the AIMIM nominee is a former MLA of the grand old party who had contested as an Independent in 2012 resulting in the victory for BJP from the seat.

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