Assembly election: BJP may win UP, Uttarakhand, Manipur; hung house in Goa, Punjab, says Survey

A survey by India TV-Ground Zero Research showed the BJP winning in UP but with lesser numbers at 230-235 seats (39.32% votes)

BJP is predicted to retain Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur, while Goa and Punjab may return a hung assembly where Congress is not in the driver's seat, a pre-poll survey predicted on Monday.

AAP has the advantage in Punjab, while BJP may romp home finally in Goa, according to the Republic TV-P-MARQ survey.

It predicted Uttar Pradesh for the BJP but with a reduced margin from the 2017 polls – from 312 to 252-272 seats with 41.3 per cent vote-share in a House of 403. Their main opponent Samajwadi Party could win 111-131 seats with 33.1 per cent votes, increasing its MLAs by more than double from the 47 it won last time.

BSP could further shrink, winning only 8-16 seats as against 19 it won in the 2017 polls, while Congress' may slide further down in one of the most politically crucial states, as it may win only 3-9 seats as against seven it won earlier, according to the survey. Others could win up to four seats.

Also Read | UP Polls: Modi's election to win or lose, not Yogi's

A survey by India TV-Ground Zero Research also showed the BJP winning but with lesser numbers at 230-235 seats (39.32 per cent votes). SP could see a three-fold increase in its seats to 160-165 (36.2 per cent), this survey predicted, while it gave Congress 2-7 seats (5.54 per cent), BSP 2-3 (12.99 per cent) and others 1-3.

According to the Republic TV-P-MARQ survey, Punjab may see the emergence of AAP as the single largest party with 50-56 seats with 37.8 per cent votes, just short of the half-way mark of 59. Punjab is the lone state where Congress is in power among the five states going to polls in February-March.

Congress could win 42-48 seats with 35.1 per cent votes while Akali Dal could get 13-17 (15.8 per cent) and BJP alliance 1-3 seats (5.7 per cent), the survey showed, indicating that former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh, who left the Congress, and his party would not be able to make a mark for themselves even as they could damage Congress.

Uttarakhand is also not a happy story for Congress, if this survey is to be believed, as it's hope to overthrow the ruling BJP may not fructify. Though the BJP may win only 36-42 seats (39.9 per cent votes), down from 56 it won in 2017, the Congress is predicted to win only 25-31 seats and garner 37.5 per cent votes. AAP may win two seats.

Manipur is also likely to go the BJP way as it may win 31-37 seats (39.2 per cent votes) in a House of 60 while Congress may win only 13-19. NPP (3-9) and NPF (1-5) are other parties that may win seats in Manipur where BJP managed to usurp power after engineering large-scale defections from Congress, which was the single largest party in the state in 2017.

The survey is showing a hung assembly in Goa where BJP may get 16-20 seats (30.5 per cent votes), one short of majority in the best-case scenario in a House of 40. Congress is likely to get 9-13 seats (22.2 per cent) while AAP 4-8 seats (12.2 per cent) and Trinamool Congress 1-5 seats (12.2 per cent). Others may get 1-3 seats.

The vote-share and the seats that are predicted to win by Trinamool and AAP indicate that the division in the Opposition may be detrimental to the chances of Congress.

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