BJP's Gujarat win is big, but Modi's charisma alone cannot win all

The question in Gujarat was whether the BJP would better Narendra Modi's record of 127 seats (in 2002) or Madhavsin Solanki-led Congress's 149 (1985). Neither a feeble Congress, an invigorated AAP somewhat distracted because of the MCD polls, nor even BJP's rebel candidates could eclipse Modi's hold over the hearts and minds of Gujarat voters.

The surprise, if any, is that the BJP breached the 50 per cent vote share mark, leading on 157 of 182 seats and winning in regions, including tribal areas, that the Congress has dominated. The AAP, with nearly 13 per cent votes, and leading in 5 seats now qualifies for the Election Commission to recognise it as a 'national' party.

But it's been a mixed couple of days for the BJP. The party appealed to the voters in Gujarat to vote for the PM. Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel rarely campaigned outside of Ahmedabad. In Himachal Pradesh, the PM had told voters that every vote to 'Kamal' would be a vote for him. He had urged them to change the "rivaz" of kicking out the incumbent every five years. Even in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) polls, the BJP hoped to extend its 15-year run on the back of Modi's charisma.

A day after the BJP lost the MCD election, Himachal voters rejected its "double engine sarkar" promise as it trailed the Congress on seats and vote share in the hill state. Its spokespersons have attributed the loss to the 21 BJP rebels, ignoring that the party believed it could ride roughshod over the aspirations of local leaders since Modi's appeal would suffice to deliver it a win.

Closer scrutiny of the results reveals a mixed bag for the BJP outside of Gujarat, including in the six Assembly and one Lok Sabha bypolls in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Modi's appeal still cannot overcome local factors, including party infighting and people's anger over inflation and joblessness, as seen in Himachal and poor governance, as the MCD results revealed.

In Western UP's Khatauli, at the heart of the BJP's Hindutva push since the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013, the party could lose its sitting seat to the Rashtriya Lok Dal-Samajwadi Party alliance. However, the BJP was on the cusp of a win in the Rampur Sadar seat, wresting it from the SP. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had alleged that local administration did not allow hundreds of voters to exercise their franchise on the polling day on December 5. The voting percentage was a dismal 34 per cent in Rampur Sadar. The bypoll was held after sitting SP MLA Azam Khan was disqualified.

The BJP wrested Bihar's Kurhal seat, where the ruling 'grand alliance' fielded a JD(U) candidate. The Biju Janata Dal was on course to retain Odisha's Padampur seat, while Congress was likely to retain the Sardarshahar seat in Rajasthan and Bhanupratappur seat in Chhattisgarh.