Karnataka poll manoeuvre: BJP, Congress in race to increase vote share

Arch-rivals BJP and Congress are trying to create a wave for themselves hoping to increase their vote share, which is crucial to cross the halfway mark in the May 10 Assembly election.

To create a wave, the BJP is relying on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and its ‘double-engine’ narrative. Congress’ show of wave is based on its five flagship poll guarantees and anti-incumbency.

“Which party’s narrative is most effective in creating the right perception in the minds of the voter will matter. The sincerity of intentions as perceived by voters is the key,” political analyst Sandeep Shastri said, adding that it’s a tough race in which every seat and region matters.

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There is a statistical challenge staring at the BJP and Congress.

The BJP has to retain the 104 seats it won in 2018 while also adding to its tally to cross the 113 mark. The Congress must ensure re-election of 69 sitting MLAs and win 44 more seats to reach 113.

In 2018, the BJP polled 36.22 per cent votes. The party hopes to make vote share gains in the Old Mysuru region, the traditional Congress-JD(S) bastion where it has slogged to build a base. This is easier said than done.

The BJP’s growth trajectory in Karnataka went back by a full decade in 2013, according to analyst Venugopal Narayanan who is tracking the Karnataka election.

“The 2018 election was a recovery election for BJP, not a growth election. In a lot of seats in the Old Mysuru region, BJP got 6-8 per cent votes in 2013 when they had close to 20-22 per cent in 2008,” Narayanan pointed out during a recent discussion on the Karnataka election, adding that the BJP seems to have returned to its growth phase after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. For the BJP to do well in the Old Mysuru region, the party’s vote share has to touch 41-42 per cent overall, he said.

In 2018, Congress earned 38.04 per cent of votes. One view in the Congress is that the party needs to increase its vote share by at least 4-5 percentage points to cross 113 seats. The additional votes have to come from OBCs, SC/STs, Lingayats and Vokkaligas.

“There’s dissatisfaction with BJP and a certain level of optimism with Congress,” said Venkatesh Thogarighatta, CEO of Catribil Consulting, a political consulting firm. “But Congress needs to win another 45 seats...does it have that kind of steam? If there’s good clarity among state leaders without the baggage of their central leadership, then Congress can win,” he said.