Dalits, Muslims hold the key in second phase of Uttar Pradesh polls; SP eyes gains while BJP banks on polarisation

The Muzaffarnagar riots had resulted in a sharp polarisation along communal lines and helped the BJP sweep the western region

Nurturing hopes to dislodge the BJP from power, the Samajwadi Party (SP) will be hoping to improve its tally of seats it had won in the 2017 Assembly polls while the BJP will be banking on polarisation as Dalits and Muslims hold the key in the second phase of polling for 55 Assembly seats in nine districts of western Uttar Pradesh on Monday.

The second phase was crucial for the SP as of the 55 seats, it had won as many as 27 seats in the region in the 2017 Assembly elections despite there being a perceptible 'pro-BJP' wave while the saffron party, which had swept the state winning 312 of the 403 seats, managed to win only 11 seats. The BSP had emerged victorious on 13 seats in the region.

Some of the districts, including Sambhal, Moradabad, Saharanpur, Bijnor, Rampur, going to the polls in the second phase have a sizable population of Muslim voters and their support will decide the winners on 25 seats. The Dalit voters, who are also in good numbers in the region, will decide the winners on at least 20 Assembly seats.

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The second phase would decide the fate of four ministers of the Yogi Adityanath cabinet, including Suresh Khanna, Baldev Singh Aulakh, Mahesh Chandra Gupta and Gulab Devi. Senior SP leader and the party's prominent Muslim face Azam Khan's fate will also be decided in this phase. Khan, who was currently lodged in jail after being arrested on charges of land grabbing and others, was in the fray from Rampur seat.

The districts going to the polls in the second phase were not very far from Muzaffarnagar, which was rocked by communal riots in 2013 that left 63 dead and thousands of others displaced. The riots had resulted in a sharp polarisation along communal lines and helped the BJP sweep the western region.

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Lack of any such wave this time around, the saffron party was hard-pressed to retain the seats it had won in 2017 polls and had gone all out to polarise the polls this time again. Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath raked up the Muzaffarnagar riots in their election rallies and promised to give a riot free state if voted to power again.

The region had witnessed strong support for the farmer agitation and at many places, the BJP nominees had to face the protests of the people, mainly the farmers over the state government's failure to hike the MSP for sugarcane and also non-payment of cane arrears by the mills.

"There is no wave this time. BJP may find the going tough owing to the anger among the farmers. SP may gain if there is no division in the Muslim votes," said a Bijnor-based scribe.

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