Assam Assembly Elections 2026: Himanta's Hindu pitch vs Gogoi's ‘Notun Bor Axom'; BJP & Congress await decisive mandate

Guwahati: The verdict on Monday will not only decide the dominance of Himanta Biswa Sarma-led BJP or the Opposition camp led by Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi but will also put its seal on the contrasting narratives for which the two parties pressed hard during the campaigning. 

While Sarma tried hard to project this elections as the fight for dominance of indigenous communities and the Sanatani Hindus over the "Bangladeshi infiltrators," Gaurav-led Opposition camp called it a battle to establish "Notun Bor Axom" (new greater Assam) of unity and communal harmony.

Months ahead of the elections, Sarma government intensified the drive to evict the Bengali-speaking Muslims from forests and government land and took the "push back" route as a "fast track" solution to Assam's long foreigners problem. The Congress camp, on the other hand, promised to give land back to the eviction victims and called BJP's tactics "divisive tactics" to win the elections only. 

Upbeat over the exit polls predicting clear mandate, BJP and its allies on Sunday exuded confidence that the NDA would form the government for the third straight term with a "historic mandate" and three-digit toll in the 126-member Assembly.

"Tomorrow, Assam will certainly give a historic mandate in favour of BJP-NDA, there is no doubt about it... Once again, a BJP government will be formed in Assam, and we are going to get unprecedented results... We are confident of this," Dilip Saikia, president of BJP's Assam unit, said on Sunday. 

BJP is contesting in 89 seats while its allies, Asom Gana Parishad and Bodoland People's Front put up candidates in 26 and 11 seats, respectively.

The verdict will also put a seal on leadership and election strategy of Sarma, who is seeking the mandate as the Chief Minister for the second term. 

Hope on undercurrents:

Undeterred by the exit poll predictions, Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi claimed that a strong undercurrent against the "dictatorial style" of Sarma and the BJP government would lead the Opposition alliance bounce back to power after 10 years. "People are fed up with the divisive and communal politics of Sarma and the way his family is creating wealth across Assam. The response we got during the polls makes us confident about forming the government," Gaurav told reporters after a review meeting on Saturday. 

With Gaurav at the helm, Congress rejigged its alliance by severing ties with Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF to join hands with two small regional parties, Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad in order to counter BJP's charge of it being a "pro-Muslim" party.

This, according to Congress leaders, helped the Opposition regain votes of the indigenous communities and the tea garden votes in Upper Assam (eastern and North Assam), having over 50 seats. 

Congress also announced "five guarantees" that included cash incentives for women, similar to BJP government's schemes since 2020. 

Eyes will also be on the AIUDF, which contested the polls alone after a long time.