Assam Assembly elections 2026: Zubeen factor, delimitation, BJP's sops for tea garden workers may influence voters

Spotlight will be on Jorhat and Titabor to know whether voters in the two neighbouring constituencies in Upper Assam will repeat history by prioritising candidates over parties.

Jorhat/Titabor: Barring a few flags near the party offices, no political activity is visible along the 30-km stretch of the State highway connecting Jorhat and Titabor in Upper Assam even as Assembly elections are just a week away.

The spotlight, however, will remain on Jorhat and Titabor on April 9 to know whether voters in the two neighbouring constituencies will repeat history by prioritising candidates over parties. Titabor displayed allegiance to the Gogoi family since 2001 by electing former Chief Minister late Tarun Gogoi four times till 2016. The Congress lost the power to the BJP in Assam in 2016 and Tarun Gogoi died in 2020. But Titabor remained with the Congress by electing Bhaskar Jyoti Baruah in 2021.

Almost similarly, Jorhat has remained firmly with the Goswami family by electing Hitendra Nath Goswami for five terms since 1991, barring twice in 2006 and 2011, when Rana Goswami of the Congress was elected.

"The trend this time may change," says Ujjiban Sekhar Goswami, a private school teacher at Titabor while referring to the change in political equation not only in Titabor and Jorhat but across Upper Assam, a region having at least 46 Assembly constituencies (including North Assam). The Assamese, other indigenous communities and the tea garden voters calls the shots in the region. There has been a trend that whichever party wins in Upper Assam, forms the government in the State.

With delimitation redrawing the constituency and the demography in 2023, Congress' Gaurav Gogoi, who is making his debut in the Assembly elections this time, however, is not contesting from the Gogoi family's stronghold of Titabor. Gaurav, who was elected from the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat in 2024, is contesting against BJP veteran and former Speaker Hitendra Nath Goswami in Jorhat, hoping a repeat of the 2024 Lok Sabha election results. Gaurav was elected to the Lok Sabha from Jorhat against incumbent MP, Topon Kumar Gogoi.

In Titabor, the Opposition party, however, replaced incumbent MLA Bhaskar Jyoti Baruah with Pran Kurmi, given the delimitation making the tea garden voters deciders.

A road in Titabor, Assam. Titabor has displayed allegiance to the Gogoi family since 2001.

New alliance

Many here believe that the electoral outcomes in Upper Assam may make a shift this time, given the "acceptability and influence" of three Gogois: Gaurav, Akhil and Lurinjyoti, who joined hands for the first time with a target to oust th BJP and its allies.

Akhil Gogoi's Raijor Dal and Lurinjyoti Gogoi's Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), parties formed out of the anti-CAA agitation in 2020, have influence in Upper Assam, particularly among the Ahom community that dominates in several constituencies.

Akhil and Lurinjyoti are contesting from Sivasagar and Khowang constituencies, respectively, in Upper Assam. Akhil was elected to the Assembly in 2021 while the AJP is yet to taste electoral success.

Identity politics

While the Opposition alliance is trying to corner the BJP over its failure to accord the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to six more ethnic communities, having influence mostly in Upper Assam, the saffron party is banking on the "anti-Miya" narrative Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has created through eviction drives and "pushbacks" to Bangladesh in the past five years.

"The Congress had welcomed the infiltrators for votes and they are trying to do the same again," Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on April 1 while campaigning at tribal-dominated Gogamukh in North Assam.

Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, who addressed a rally a few minutes later at Nazira in Upper Assam, said, "The BJP is spreading unwanted fear only for votes."

Focus on tea gardens

The ruling BJP has constantly tried to keep its vote bank in tea gardens intact by doling out several schemes, given their influence in many seats in Upper Assam and North bank.

From giving land patta (land deeds) to Rs 5,000 one-time cash, hike of Rs. 30 in daily wage (from Rs 250 to Rs 280) just weeks before the polls and Rs 1,250 being offered to women under the 'Orunodoi' scheme, the saffron party is banking heavily on the tea garden votes.

Sabita Bhuyan, a woman worker at Duflating tea estate in Titabor, said, "We have been asked to fill up the form now so that the land patta can be given after the polls."

A Congress supporter told DH that the BJP was luring voters with the promise of land. Tea garden workers lives inside tea estates but without legal rights over the plots.

CM face and Zubeen factor

An internal rift between Sarma and former Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal may also influence the outcome. From Hiteswar Saikia to Tarun Gogoi (both Congress) and Sonowal, Upper Assam has preferred a Chief Minister from this region but the BJP's decision to replace Sonowal with Sarma (from lower Assam origin) after the Assembly polls victory in 2021 upset many.

"Sarma is not acceptable here," a government employee said in Jorhat. Sarma's allegations against Gaurav about Pakistan links may also turn into a dampener for the BJP, he said.

There is also a strong undercurrent against Sarma and the BJP here over the case of iconic singer Zubeen Garg's death. "Sarma publicly promised to ensure justice to Zubeen-da's family and fans before the elections. Now he is doing a flip flop. All these may go against the BJP."

The Congress has been flagging the Zubeen issue to corner Sarma and the BJP in Upper Assam. Zubeen, 52, who died while swimming in Singapore in September last year, was originally from Jorhat.