Seat sharing tussle raise fears of alliance 'breakdown' for BJP, Congress in poll-bound Assam

The 126-member Assam Assembly will go to polls, with the BJP contesting alongside its allies: AGP, BPF and UPPL.

Guwahati: Even as politicking for the Assam Assembly elections, slated for April, has intensified, the growing tussle over seat sharing has raised the possibility of a breakdown of alliances in both the ruling BJP camp and the Congress-led Opposition.

While the Congress faces the prospect of an alliance breakdown over seat sharing with Raijor Dal, a regional outfit led by lone MLA Akhil Gogoi, a similar concern looms over the BJP’s alliance with the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), its Bodoland-based ally since 2021.

Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi said seat sharing with Left allies and the Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) has been finalised, but talks with Raijor Dal remain inconclusive. Though details have not been made public, Raijor Dal president and Sivasagar MLA Akhil Gogoi said his party has sought 15 seats. Differences over two Muslim-majority constituencies have stalled the process.

Gaurav Gogoi, president of the Asom Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC), on Wednesday openly expressed dismay over the induction of two Congress MLAs into Raijor Dal. One MLA, Sherman Ali, was expelled from the Congress, while Abdul Rashid Mandal was on the verge of expulsion for “anti-party activities.” According to Gaurav, their induction did not reflect the spirit of unity. Akhil, however, said the two were inducted to prevent them from joining BJP allies.

This has raised concerns about a possible breakdown of the Opposition alliance. However, Akhil on Thursday said, “We are very confident about finalising the alliance with Congress. We want to be with Congress to defeat the fascist BJP.” In November last year, Congress and five Opposition parties decided to contest the Assembly elections together, aiming to unseat the BJP and its allies.

BJP’s tussle in Bodoland:

The ruling BJP, eyeing a third consecutive term, is engaged in a tussle over seat sharing with two allies in the Bodoland region — the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL). The BPF and UPPL are rivals in the Bodoland region, which comprises five districts: Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa, Udalguri and Tamulpur. The region, where voters from the Bodo tribe are a decisive factor, has 15 Assembly seats out of 126.

The UPPL, a BJP ally since 2021, currently has seven MLAs, but the BJP has reportedly offered it only four seats this time. The saffron party, meanwhile, has offered six seats to the BPF, which it reinducted into the NDA after its victory in the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) polls in September last year.

The UPPL is firm on contesting seven seats, with party chief Pramod Bodo on Thursday stating that it was even preparing to field candidates in all 15 seats. For the UPPL, the Assembly elections will be a test of survival in the Bodoland region, where it lost the BTC polls to the BPF.

“Let the BPF and UPPL hold talks and decide,” Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said on Thursday. The BPF, on the other hand, is keen to maintain its winning momentum in the Bodoland region and remain an influential partner in the BJP-led government. The BPF had walked out of the NDA just ahead of the 2021 Assembly elections.

Sarma said seat sharing with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), a key regional ally since 2016, is almost complete, though sources said it has not yet been finalised. The AGP currently has nine MLAs in the 126-member House.

The Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF is likely to contest the polls alone this time, as the Congress has rejected its offer for a pre-poll alliance similar to 2021. This is largely due to the BJP’s consistent attempts to portray the Congress and AIUDF as pro-Muslim parties.

The 126-member Assam Assembly will go to polls, with the BJP contesting alongside its allies, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL).

The Congress will contest with its allies, Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP), Raijor Dal and the Left parties while the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is likely to go it alone with no ally.