Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 | Exit polls vs results: NDA surges past predictions, leads in 204 seats

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has put up a stunning performance in the Bihar Assembly elections, with the alliance leading in 204 of the 243 seats, according to the Election Commission of India (ECI) trends at 2.50 pm on Friday. 

The BJP and JD(U)-led alliance surged far beyond what most exit polls had projected, as the counting of votes for the Assembly elections progressed. 

While most exit polls projected a minimum of 120 seats and a maximum of 172 for the NDA, the RJD and Congress-led Mahagathbandhan was projected to win 32 to 118 seats. The exit poll by Poll Diary had projected the NDA would win up to 209 seats.

The majority mark in the 243-member Bihar Assembly stands at 122.

Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan, leading in 34 seats, according to the ECI trends, is heading for a humiliating defeat. Pollsters had projected the alliance would will a minimum of 65 seats and a maximum of 118. The exit poll by Poll Diary had projected the Mahagathbandhan would win up to 32 seats.

Here is what some of the exit polls predictions.

The projection made by the pollsters that the NDA would have a comfortable victory in 2025 was accurate. This was in contrast to what happened in 2015 and 2020 elections where exit polls were largely inaccurate.

The two-phase voting in Bihar saw a record turnout. While the first phase of polling held on November 6 saw a polling percentage of about 65, the second phase held on November 11 saw a turnout of 67.14.