RJD’s decline signals search for a new Opposition in Bihar

Memories of ‘jungle raj’ and caste resentment continue to haunt the RJD’s electoral prospects.

“The RJD lost like an incumbent,” remarked a fellow journalist as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s landslide victory became apparent by noon. A reviled incumbent, I would add. This is not to slight the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) but to underline the simmering psyche in a majority of Bihar’s voters who still spurn it.

 Some may point out the RJD’s striking 80-seats tally in 2015, and 75 in 2020. But while in 2015 it contested under the banner of JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar, in 2020 LJP’s Chirag Paswan’s role as the JD(U)’s vote cutter must be factored in.

Before Bihar went to the hustings on November 6 and 11, a fleet of Delhi journalists who arrived in Patna were taken aback by the dull and drab electoral canvas around them. ‘There is no pro-incumbency or anti-incumbency sentiment,’ some noted in their social media postings.

 But underneath a sense of saturation with the now ageing Kumar and his ally BJP, there was a silent, reluctant consensus to vote for them to preclude the RJD. A last-minute handout of Rs 10,000 to women also helped the NDA.

Throughout my reporting in the Magadh region and Mithilanchal, I was astounded by the people’s enduring memory of what is often termed the ‘jungle raj’ — perhaps rejigged by Instagram reels. In Delhi, many underplay that factor. For them, Lalu Prasad’s illustrious story of a subaltern underdog taking on Bihar’s oppressive feudalism weighs more heavily than acknowledging the ground reality: his steady slip from being the messiah of the poor to a formidable leader of the OBCs to an effacing Muslim-Yadav figurehead.

 Some are even accusatory. Anybody stating that fear of the return of lawlessness still is a major factor among voters is vilified for fuelling upper-caste narratives.

But endemic fear persists. The most frantic anti-RJD respondents I met across Bihar were the poor: Those selling noodles and egg-roll in Patna’s Marine Drive and in other big cities, kiosk owners, daily-wage earners returning late from work to their hamlets. “We’re earning a measly Rs 300-500 a day after 12-14 hours of slogging. We are not going to give Rs 200 out of it to ‘Yadav musclemen’,” they said plainly. While penning this article, the BJP is leading in 92 seats, its ally JD(U) in 84. The RJD is relegated to 25.

 But lawlessness is not Lalu Prasad’s only legacy. His tenure saw monopolisation of reservation benefits by the dominant OBCs, primarily the Yadavs, creating deep fissures among smaller castes, whom Nitish Kumar patronised and later recognised as Extremely Backward Class (EBC).

Rahul Gandhi’s and Tejashwi Yadav’s voter adhikar yatra, however pivotal to the survival of democracy, makes no sense to these EBCs, whose only ticket to a turnaround is securing a government job — but who saw government postings unevenly distributed under Lalu Prasad. They are wary of the RJD, even as behind Bihar’s flashy infrastructural makeover hides unnerving poverty. More than 94 lakh families in Bihar survive on Rs 6,000 or less a month.

 Deep penetration of Hindutva in Bihar’s hinterland is now a reality. On the surface, there’s hardly any communal violence, but urban middle-class talking points— laced with hostility for Muslims— now find articulation among Bihar’s poor. Even in Dushadh and Saini villages, respondents were full of adulation for Narendra Modi for abolishing Article 370 and building the Ram temple in Ayodhya. This was when they sold livestock to eke out a living, and 50% of their crops were wasted due to the late monsoon.

The Opposition must start from scratch. Understanding voter psyche is paramount to that exercise. The takeaway is: A cross section of the electorate, especially the EBCs and increasingly the Dalits, are not compatible with the RJD — the blandishment of one government job per household notwithstanding. The RJD’s swarming Muslim and Yadav supporters, flashed along with pejorative comments on social media, leads to reverse consolidation.

 The late Kanshi Ram said a fight from the scratch must be two-fold: Capturing the principal Opposition space before capturing power. This election underlined that only an umbrella party capable of reducing the appeal of the political extreme can hope to beat the NDA­ — the RJD is not that party. The time has come when someone else — the Congress or a third player like the Jan Suraaj Party — must replace it as the principal opponent in Bihar.

Anando Bhakto is a New Delhi-based journalist covering politics and the Kashmir conflict. X: @anandobhakto

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.