Assembly Elections 2026 Results: India's political map to be rewritten? All eyes on the outcome

New Delhi: India will know by Monday afternoon whether its political map is set to be rewritten as counting of votes for the high stake elections in four states and a union territory – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry – will be held during the day.

The outcome will have a bearing on both the ruling BJP and the Opposition – the Congress, Trinamool Congress, DMK and the Left – will be an under-statement, as the results, unlike in the past, could rewrite political equations in the state. The counting of votes will start at 8 AM on Monday.

In West Bengal, Trinamool Congress is vying for a fourth-term and is confident despite almost all exit polls giving its rival BJP an edge. A BJP win, a first in Bengal if it manages to cross 148 seats, will come after it manages its first Chief Minister in Bihar a fortnight ago.

For the Trinamool, an emphatic victory would help its leader Mamata Banerjee to assert her space in national politics and demand that the I.N.D.I.A bloc look at her as its potential face in 2029 Lok Sabha elections. The Bengal polls saw the Trinamool in a fight not just against its rival but Election Commission too.

The results will also be keenly watched by a “pro-active” EC, which deployed unprecedented number of paramilitary forces after presiding over a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls which saw 27.16 lakh people put under adjudication and only 1,607 out of them managing to vote.

It also ordered a repoll in polling booths of an entire Assembly constituency Falta later May and the counting will be held for 293 of the 294 seats.

Exit polls have projected MK Stalin-led DMK alliance to romp home in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly but all eyes will be on the performance of actor Vijay-led TVK, which a pollster predicted could sink the AIADMK-BJP coalition in the state. 

TVK polling 20% votes in the states could initiate a political realignment, prompting a sulking Congress, which wants power sharing that the DMK detests, to look beyond its alliance partner.

Kerala will be crucial for both the Congress and the CPI(M), as a defeat for both the parties would be politically devastating for them. 

Congress has been out of power in Kerala for the past ten years and it is hoping for nothing less than an emphatic victory, which could cement its pre-eminent position in the Opposition fold. Incidentally, Kerala is the only state where the party is confident of regaining power.

During the campaign phase earlier, political scientist J Prabhash told DH that a defeat in Kerala that has nearly 50% minorities would signal that Congress has entered the “last leg of decline”. For the CPI(M) and LDF, a defeat would mean that the Left is no longer in a government in India for the first time after 1977.

In Assam, BJP is seeking a third term while Congress is seeking to return to the game in full force. While exit polls have not been encouraging for the Congress with BJP projected to get two-third majority, the party believes that its performance would be much better than what is predicted.

The AINRC-led NDA is seeking to retain power in Puducherry where the Congress-DMK alliance hopes to register its supremacy as in neighbouring Tamil Nadu. However, the exit polls have projected a status quo with AINRC managing to retain power against Congress and DMK, which could not reconcile their differences.