Chandigarh: The political discourse of Punjab has altered dramatically in the last five years, turning the electoral arena into a no-holds-barred contest from bipolar to a near five-cornered battleground. The political landscape in Punjab is ceding space to new alignments, fragmented leadership and greenhorns. Moreover, in the backdrop of the burgeoning farmer distress, there is a spiralling drug menace and renewed sprouting of radical sentiments.
The AAP, Congress, the BJP, SAD (Badal) and SAD (Amritsar) are the prominent parties in the poll fray, Yet, the contest appears to be a direct fight between the Congress and the AAP. A renascent BJP and the dawdler SAD (Badal), two former allies, hope to salvage lost pride and make inroads to stay in the reckoning. The Congress and AAP are contesting the elections as allies in Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh but are pitted against each other in all the 13 Lok Sabha constituencies in Punjab.
Punjab often debunks popular mainstream trends. PM Modi’s push for ‘Hindu majoritarian’ hyper-nationalism and the rhetoric surrounding the country's position in the global arena has so far found only a limited resonance in the state. A fragmented Congress is pulling out all stops to retain its tally of 8 seats and the 2019 vote share of 40%. This was when the Congress had the patronage of leaders like former CM Captain Amarinder Singh, Sunil Jakhar and Preneet Kaur who now have switched over to the saffron fold.
An encouraging performance of the AAP in Punjab will likely shore up its role in the I.N.D.I.A. bloc. Its footprints have grown exponentially in Punjab even as the party encounters this election amid palpable anger among constituents. Some of AAP’s failed promises like the dole out of Rs 1,000 to nearly 1 crore women in Punjab every month are yet to see the light of the day.
AAP had a lone MP Bhagwant Mann in 2019 with a party vote share of little over 7%. The 2022 Assembly elections saw an astonishing performance by the AAP with a massive 92/117 tally and a phenomenal 42% vote share. The interim bail for Arvind Kejriwal has offered impetus to AAP’s campaign.
The BJP, which won 2 seats in 2019, is being christened as the 'refurbished' Congress with many Congress top leaders showing up as turncoats owing allegiance to the saffron party. This is the first election in almost three decades that the BJP is contesting independently. Its senior ally, the 100-year-old SAD (Badal) severed ties over the three controversial Farm Laws that now stand repealed.
The BJP is inviting brickbats in the wake of the ongoing farmer protests in Punjab. Farmers are showing black flags, blocking entry and hurling abuses at BJP candidates, impeding the party's campaign and outreach in rural areas. Talking to DH, Punjab BJP president Sunil Jakhar said, "These protests are scripted. They are not genuine farmers. BJP’s doors have always been open to talks. BJP’s right to campaign is being hampered.”
The Akali Dal, which also won just 2 Lok Sabha seats last election, appears on a downward trajectory. Its performance was abysmal in 2022 when its tally was reduced to just 3 Assembly seats. The ethno-religious party battles the blemish of the 2015 sacrilege incidents. The alleged autocratic functioning of its top leadership has led to dissension and desertion of senior party leaders.
A surge in radical sentiment is conspicuous by the presence of radicals in the poll fray. Khalistan ideologue Amritpal Singh, currently lodged in the Dibrugarh jail in Assam under the National Security Act (NSA), is contesting as an independent candidate from the Khadoor Sahib constituency. Over half a dozen separatist leaders including SAD (Amritsar) chief and former IPS officer Simranjit Singh Mann (Sangrur) are contesting elections.
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