I.N.D.I.A sinking? Speculation rife over Nitish jumping ship to NDA camp

New Delhi: Speculation is rife about Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) once again snapping ties with the RJD and other Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) partners in Bihar to form a government with the BJP.

A series of developments, such as Nitish’s meeting with the Bihar Governor, changing the portfolio of three RJD ministers, and emergency meetings of RJD chief Lalu and Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav with the Chief Minister, have prompted talks about the JD(U) jumping the Mahagathbandhan bandwagon.

Nitish was said to be upset over the I.N.D.I.A alliance not naming him as the Convenor or the Prime Ministerial face of the Opposition bloc. Earlier this month, the bloc decided on his name, but it was not announced fearing objection from Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee.

What added to the speculation is a series of meetings JD(U), BJP, and RJD have convened. BJP’s Bihar unit is said to be not keen on giving Nitish Chief Ministership and has told the central leadership that the saffron party should claim the top post and leave two Deputy Chief Ministers to the JD(U).

At present, the Grand Alliance has 160 MLAs, including JD(U)’s 45, in a House of 243 while the Opposition has 83. With the halfway mark at 122, the RJD with 79 MLAs would need just seven more MLAs along with allies Congress and Left parties to cross the majority mark.

JD(U)’s Political Advisor and spokesperson KC Tyagi told reporters that “everything is fine” in the I.N.D.I.A alliance and “if there is a problem, it is in Punjab and West Bengal”. He was referring to AAP and Trinamool Congress announcing that they will fight alone in Lok Sabha elections.

The latest signal that all is not well in the Mahagathbandhan came during the centenary celebrations of socialist icon Karpoor Thakur when Nitish criticised dynasty politics, which was read as an attack on RJD and Lalu Prasad, whose children Tejashwi and Misa Bharti are prominent politicians.

The Narendra Modi government's announcement of Bharat Ratna for Thakur also added mystery to the political developments, while unconfirmed reports suggested that Nitish is unlikely to participate in a rally organized for Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in Purnea at the end of this month.

If the alliance with the BJP materialises, Nitish may be seen with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a rally in Bihar’s Bettiah as early as on February 4.

Recently, Nitish had also assumed the seat of JD(U) national president, removing Rajiv Ranjan ‘Lalan’ Singh, who was perceived to be against any alliance with the BJP and considered moving closer to the RJD.

If Nitish leaves the Grand Alliance, this will be the second time in six years that he will be returning to the NDA fold. He had, in 2014, left the NDA and, along with the RJD, Congress, and the Left, fought the 2015 elections to return to power.

However, in 2017, he snapped ties with the Grand Alliance and returned to the NDA fold. In 2020, he returned to power as an NDA partner, but in 2022, he left the NDA to again join hands with the RJD and others.

It is said that there has been an unwritten agreement between Nitish and Lalu that the JD(U) chief would make way for Tejashwi by 2024 and move to national politics.