Mumbai: With the Lok Sabha polls set to be declared in just a couple of weeks, the ruling BJP-led Maha Yuti (MY) in Maharashtra and the opposition Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) have yet to finalize the seat-sharing arrangements. The delay is largely due to the significant shift in the political landscape from 2019 to 2024.
The main criterion set by the two opposing formations for seat-sharing talks is winnability. Discussions between the partners of the two respective alliances are scheduled for this week, with the deal expected to be finalized around the time when the general elections are formally declared.
Maharashtra accounts for 48 seats, second only to Uttar Pradesh's 80, and both the BJP and Congress, which lead the NDA and IN.D.I.A respectively, are not taking any chances.
In 2019, the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha polls were fought by the BJP-Shiv Sena saffron alliance against the Congress-NCP democratic front. However, the situation changed post the Assembly polls.
Veteran politician Sharad Pawar, the then NCP supremo, engaged Uddhav Thackeray, then Shiv Sena President, and together with the Congress, stitched together the MVA, a prominent anti-BJP formation.
Uddhav, the son of the late Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray, assumed the leadership of the government on 28 November 2019.
In June-July 2022, the MVA led by Thackeray was toppled, and Eknath Shinde of the Shiv Sena assumed the position of Chief Minister, with Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP becoming the Deputy Chief Minister.
In June-July 2023, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP faced a split, and his nephew Ajit Pawar assumed the position of Deputy Chief Minister for a record fifth time. This occurred after he resigned as Leader of the Opposition and joined the NDA.
Both Shinde and Ajit Pawar successfully claimed their factions within Shiv Sena and NCP as the legitimate ones, along with their traditional iconic symbols—the bow and arrow for Shiv Sena and the clock for NCP.
Now, Sharad Pawar and his daughter Supriya Sule's party is known as NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), while Thackeray's outfit is known as Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray).
After the split in Shiv Sena, the ruling Shinde-group commands a strength of 13 MPs, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) has five MPs.
On the other hand, the Sharad Pawar-Supriya Sule-led parent NCP commands a strength of three MPs, while Ajit Pawar's faction has one MP.
The BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP ruling coalition has set an ambitious target of winning 45 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats and 215 of the 288 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly seats. Other parties within the BJP-led Maha Yuti include the Ramdas Athawale-led Republic Party of India (Athawale), Hitendra Thakur-led Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, Bachchu Kadu-led Prahar Janshakti Party, Prof Jogendra Kawade-led People’s Republican Party, Sadabhau Khot-led Rayat Kranti Sanghatana, Vinay Kore-led Jansurajya Party, and Mahadev Jankar-led Rashtriya Samaj Party.
The Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi comprises Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (SCP), alongside the Peasants and Workers Party (PWP), Communist Party of India, and Communist Party of India (Marxist). The Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, which is in alliance with Shiv Sena (UBT), had been invited to be part of the MVA; however, Ambedkar has not yet consented.
In the 2019 polls, Ambedkar created a dent in the Congress-NCP prospects, which could be a significant factor. Additionally, in some pockets, the MVA would face challenges from the K Chandrashekar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and the Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM).
The formulas of the 2014 and 2019 general elections would not be applicable this time due to the splits in the 57-year-old Shiv Sena and 25-year-old NCP.
In 2014, the BJP contested 24 seats and won 23, while Shiv Sena contested 20 seats and won 18. The Congress contested 22 seats and won two, while the NCP contested 21 seats and won four.
In 2019, the BJP contested 25 seats and won 23, while Shiv Sena contested 23 and won 18. The Congress contested 25 seats and won one seat, while the NCP contested 19 seats and won four.
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