Lok Sabha polls: Will BJP alliance make inroads at the cost of AIADMK in southern Tamil Nadu?

Chennai: Caste equations, most importantly the consolidation of dominant castes behind one alliance, social engineering by parties, and religious polarisation in select areas have always played a major role in deciding the electoral outcome in southern Tamil Nadu comprising 10 Lok Sabha constituencies.

The April 19 Lok Sabha elections are no exception. While the ruling DMK and principal Opposition AIADMK have their own vote banks comprising of several communities and religions, including the minorities, the electoral battle has turned interesting this time around with the BJP attempting at a social engineering of Mukulathors, Devendrakula Vellalars (DVK), and other Dalit communities like Arunthathiyars, who aren’t much in numbers here.

It is also in south TN that the national parties have a base of their own in places like Kanyakumari and in parts of Tirunelveli where Hindus and Christians are divided on religious lines forming the core support of the BJP and Congress respectively. Congress commands a sizable amount of votes among Hindu votes too, apart from minorities.

Thevars being wooed by TTV & OPS

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), riding on an anti-BJP wave, won 9 out of the 10 seats, leaving only Theni to the AIADMK.

AIADMK, this time, is sweating it out to ensure that its core voters among all castes, including the dominant Thevars, stay with the party and doesn’t shift to rebel leaders, T T V Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam, who are wooing them, to add strength to the BJP alliance.

Apart from Maravars and Pillais, a Forward Caste, the BJP is also pulling all strings to reach out to all Dalit communities and only the election results will tell whether they have been successful.

DMK, on the other hand, is banking on support from all communities and the minority vote bank, which is a significant chunk in many segments in the region, apart from the arithmetic strength of its alliance and social welfare schemes of its three-year-old government. The above factors, the DMK believes, will counter the anti-incumbency against sitting MPs.

In a few constituencies in the region, youngsters seem to be swayed by Naam Tamizhar Katchi, a Tamil nationalist outfit, which is likely to get a chunk of votes from the 18-25 age group.

How’s the fight unfolding?

In Dindigul, Madurai, Virudhunagar, and Sivaganga, the fight is between the DMK and AIADMK-led alliances, while Ramanathapuram and Theni are witnessing three-cornered contests with OPS and TTV themselves entering the fray, giving tough fight to both the DMK and AIADMK candidates.

The picture in Thoothukudi, where Kanimozhi Karunanidhi is the candidate, and Tenkasi (SC) looks rosy for the ruling DMK.

In Tirunelveli, the primary fight seems to be between Robert Bruce (Congress) and Nainar Nagendran (BJP), a popular leader in the area after having been in AIADMK for a long time, while in Kanyakumari, the electoral battle is clearly divided on religious lines with Congress’ Vijay Vasanth, a Hindu much like BJP’s Pon Radhakrishnan, is fighting for a second term.

Dr S Samuel Asir Raj, Professor & Head, Department of Sociology, Manonmaniam Sundaranar University, Tirunelveli told DH that the BJP has been working on enlisting the support of Hindu Nadars and Maravars for a very long time and Nagendran joining the party made things easy.

“The BJP will succeed in harvesting more votes from the Nadars and Maravars due to the DMK’s insufficient response during the recent floods. In the long-term, a section of the Nadars had always been with the BJP and the feudal mentality of Maravars is helping them come closer to the party. But the BJP faces a problem in the Dalit votes,” Raj said.

‘Dalit votes to go to DMK’

The professor said a major chunk of the Dalit votes are likely to go to the DMK, thanks to its alliance with VCK, while the BJP’s outreach to DVK through John Pandian, the alliance’s candidate in Tenkasi, and its former ally K Krishnasamy, hasn’t worked in its favour so far.

“Moreover, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, and Kanyakumari have a large number of government employees and these people are more inclined towards the DMK, in general,” he added.

Fight in constituencies

The fight in Dindigul is between Sachidanandam of the CPI (M) and ‘Nellai’ Mubarak of Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) who is contesting on AIADMK’s Two Leaves symbol while the PMK candidate, Thilagabama, of the BJP alliance is in third position as her party doesn’t have a base in the region. Since both alliances are banking on the votes of minorities, it is the votes of other communities that will decide the winner.

In neighbouring Madurai, AIADMK nominee P Saravanan, a party hopper, is giving a tough fight to incumbent Su Venkatesan of the CPI (M) calling him a “non-performer”, while the electoral contest in Virudhunagar is likely to boil down to Manickam Tagore (Congress) and Vijaya Prabhakaran (DMDK), possibly pushing BJP’s Raadhika Sarathkumar to the third slot.

In Sivaganga, Congress’ Karti P Chidambaram is fighting AIADMK’s A Xavierdoss and Devanathan Yadav of a caste outfit contesting on BJP’s symbol, while the picture in Thoothukudi, where Kanimozhi Karunanidhi is the candidate, and Tenkasi (SC) looks rosy for the ruling DMK.

Ramanathapuram and Theni are witnessing three-cornered contests with OPS and TTV themselves entering the fray, giving tough fights to both the DMK and AIADMK candidates. TTV is banking on his popularity besides the votes of Thevars, while OPS’ sole hope is on the votes of the Thevar community, a section of which feels it has been side-lined by the AIADMK leadership.

In Tirunelveli too, the BJP is hoping that the AIADMK’s internal tussle will push the Maravars towards the party apart from cashing-on Nainar’s personal image and votes of the Hindu Nadar community.

Though a few Thevar groups have launched a campaign both on the ground and in social media against Nainar, the BJP is sweating it out to defeat the Congress, which seems lagging, for now, in its campaign, but a last minute push by senior ally DMK, could change things dramatically.

In Kanyakumari, the electoral battle is clearly divided on religious lines with Congress’ Vijay Vasanth, a Hindu much like BJP’s Pon Radhakrishnan, is fighting for a second term as he faces a likely split in fishermen votes – largely Christians – with AIADMK and NTK fielding candidates from the community.