What first assembly poll in a decade post Article 370 means for J&K?

The elections are not just about choosing representatives but are also about how the people of Jammu and Kashmir will react to the August 5 decision through ballot.

Srinagar: The holding of the first Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir in September and October after the abrogation of Article 370 marks a significant moment in the region's recent political history.

The election will be a test of the central government's narrative of integrating Jammu and Kashmir more fully into the Indian Union, following the scrapping of the erstwhile state's special status under Article 370 in August 2019.

For people, particularly in the Kashmir Valley, the election is a chance to reclaim a political identity that has felt diminished since the reorganisation of the state into two Union Territories—Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh.

The abrogation of Article 370 was a momentous event, seen by many as a violation of the promises made to the state at the time of its accession to India in 1947. The elections, therefore, are not just about choosing representatives but are also about how the people of Jammu and Kashmir will react to the August 5 decision through ballot.

The election will test the strength of the traditional political parties - National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) - which have long dominated the region's politics. Both parties have opposed the abrogation of Article 370 and have been vocal about the need to restore J&K’s special status.

Their participation in the elections, despite their opposition to the events of August 2019, is seen as an acknowledgment that boycotting the electoral process might marginalise them further.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has historically had a limited presence in the Kashmir Valley, will aim to consolidate its influence in the Jammu region where it has a stronger base.

The security situation remains a critical concern. With the region experiencing sporadic violence, there is apprehension about the smooth conduct of the elections. However, the central government has assured that all necessary measures will be in place to ensure a peaceful electoral process.

After the huge participation of people in Lok Sabha polls, the voter turnout will be closely watched in Assembly elections, as it will be seen as a referendum on the post-370 status quo. A high turnout, particularly in the Valley, could be interpreted as an acceptance of the new political reality, while a low turnout might suggest continued discontent and alienation among the populace.

Another key issue is the extent of autonomy and governance that the new assembly will have. Although Article 370’s abrogation has been justified by the government as a move towards better governance and development, critics argue that without the restoration of statehood and a degree of autonomy, the elected assembly may find itself with limited powers, especially given the strong central control.

Moreover, the new assembly will be expected to address a range of pressing issues, including unemployment, development, and the preservation of the region’s unique cultural and religious heritage. How effectively it manages to do so will likely determine the future prospects of the region.