Promises overflowed, funds didn’t: UKP-3 key poll plank

The gap between promise and delivery in the implementation of the Upper Krishna Project (UKP) has emerged as a defining issue in the run-up to the April 9 bypoll in Bagalkot Assembly constituency, turning the election into a referendum on development as much as on political credibility.

During the 2023 Assembly campaign, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah had announced an ambitious Rs 75,000 crore allocation for the third phase of the UKP. Three years later, however, only about Rs 9,000 crore has been released, leaving the project far from completion and fuelling discontent among farmers and local stakeholders. The delay has had a cascading effect on irrigation expansion, a critical need in a region heavily dependent on agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation.

Bagalkot, often described as Karnataka’s ‘Sugar Bowl’, continues to face structural constraints that limit its economic potential. Incomplete irrigation infrastructure has compounded the challenges faced by farmers, who are already grappling with fluctuating market prices and delayed payments from sugar factories. For many, the stalled UKP phase III represents not just a broken promise but a direct impediment to long-term agricultural stability.

Against this backdrop, the bypoll has assumed significance beyond routine electoral politics. The Congress has fielded Umesh Meti, son of late MLA H Y Meti, seeking to leverage both legacy and the ruling party’s welfare guarantees. The BJP, in contrast, has nominated seasoned leader Veeranna Charantimath, a three-time MLA with deep organisational roots, who is contesting his sixth election.

The electoral arithmetic, however, is layered with local dynamics. In 2023, Charantimath’s defeat was partly attributed to internal divisions, with his brother Mallikarjun Charantimath contesting as an Independent and splitting the BJP vote on a Hindutva plank. Although Mallikarjun has since joined the Congress, one has to see whether his support base will seamlessly transfer to the ruling party.

Community alignments also appear to be shifting. The Lambani community, traditionally aligned with the BJP, had distanced itself during the previous election over the internal reservation issue. There are indications that sections of the community are now gravitating back towards the BJP, disillusioned with the Congress as well.

Both parties have sought to frame the campaign around development, prominently highlighting the UKP phase III and the proposed government medical college. Yet, on the ground, the contest appears to reflect a broader ideological and policy divide - between the Congress’s welfare-driven approach and the BJP’s emphasis on Hindutva and governance critique.

The Congress is banking heavily on its guarantee schemes to consolidate rural support, particularly among women and economically weaker sections. The BJP, meanwhile, has questioned the fiscal sustainability of these schemes, arguing that they risk diverting resources from capital-intensive projects such as irrigation and infrastructure.

Bagalkot’s electoral profile adds another layer of complexity. With a near-equal distribution of urban and rural voters, the constituency has historically witnessed a split mandate. Urban areas have tended to favour the BJP, aided in part by Charantimath’s association with influential institutions such as the Basaveshwara Vidyavardhak Sangha. Rural areas, on the other hand, have remained a stronghold of the Meti family.

Voter sentiment reflects this duality. While some acknowledge Charantimath’s track record and organisational strength, others point to the tangible benefits of welfare schemes introduced by the Congress government, suggesting that even partial implementation could influence voting behaviour.

Caste equations further shape the contest. Lingayats form the largest voting bloc, followed by Kurubas, Muslims, Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Lambanis. Each group holds the potential to tilt the balance in a closely fought election.

Women voters (1,32,476) outnumber men (1,26,761), making them a potentially decisive factor. The presence of first-time voters, senior citizens, and other special categories add to the complexity of electoral mobilisation.

In all, Bagalkot bypoll is poised to test competing political narratives. For the Congress, retaining the seat would reinforce its governance model and welfare agenda. For the BJP, a victory would not only signal a revival in northern Karnataka but also provide momentum ahead of the 2028 Assembly elections.

Constituency watch